Fateful Summit

Two years ago when Pres. Bush met in Akaba with then new PM Abbas of the PA
and PM Sharon to initiate the Road Map peace plan there was much hope in the
air, but it was soon dispelled because Yasser Arafat prevented Abbas from
gaining any power and forced him to resign. Now two years later we are
without Arafat, and Abbas is back as elected President of the PA in place of
Arafat. So now there is hope again for the Summit meeting to be held
between Abbas and Sharon next Tuesday at Sharm-al Sheikh, hosted by Egyptian
Pres. Mubarak.
This hope is bolstered by two factors, first it is said that whereas Arafat
could have restrained the terrorist groups but didn't want to, Abbas wants
to restrain them, but can he? The second factor is that there is a
preliminary ceasefire in effect, called a "tahdiah" or "calmness" by the
Palestinians. However, it has been broken on several occasions.
Yesterday a young girl was killed by a bullet in the head while playing at a
school in Gaza. Of course, this was initially blamed at the highest level
of the PA on the IDF firing a tank shell at the school, as duly reported in
the media, but it turned out to be completely false, and she was in fact
killed by firing from Palestinians celebrating their return from the Hajj.
The amazing thing is that the PA then announced this reversal and said that
a Palestinian man has been arrested for questioning in the murder. So some
things have changed. However, Hamas used the death as an excuse to fire
mortars at an Israeli settlement. Today a young boy was arrested at a
checkpoint near Nablus carrying a suicide belt in a bag and there is another
security alert in Jerusalem.
Nevertheless the tahdiah is largely holding, and Israel's security cabinet
met today and announced confidence building measures to be implemented early
next week, that the IDF will withdraw from 5 West Bank cities and turn
security control over to the PA forces, that the IDF will stop targeted
killings unless a terrorist incident is imminent, and Israel will release
500 Palestinian prisoners immediately (and 400 more later). It is rumored
that in response Abbas will use the occasion of the Summit to announce that
the intifada is over. The two sides will then negotiate a formal ceasefire
agreement. The question is can Abbas enforce a ceasefire agreement on his
side, when the commitment of the terrorist organizations to stop the "armed
struggle" against Israel is lukewarm at best. Israel will turn over to
Abbas a list of 500 wanted Palestinian terrorists and will agree not to
pursue them as long as he guarantees that they will no longer engage in
terrorism. Can Abbas enforce such an agreement under the prevailing
circumstances?
Condoleeza Rice will be present at the Summit for the first time as Secty.
of State as a facilitator. The announcement today by Pres. Bush in his
State of the Union speech that the US will supply m$350 to the PA should
help Abbas to persuade his people that a ceasefire is in their interests.
But, as far as the terrorists are concerned this will only confirm to them
that he is a "puppet" of the Americans and Israelis.
So the fateful Summit will take place next week, and we will all watch with
bated breath as the proceedings unfold. Will Abbas announce the formal end
of the intifada? Will there be a formal ceasefire agreement, and if so will
the terrorists honor it? Will the two sides agree to coordinate the
disengagement of Israel from Gaza? All big questions that must await the
fateful Summit.