Saturday, January 29, 2005

Encouraging signs

The steps taken so far by the Government of Pres. Abbas of the PA are encouraging. PA security forces have fanned out through northern Gaza and have prevented the continuation of rocket attacks on Israeli territory. Similar forces in the thousands are being deployed in southern and central Gaza to prevent attacks on IDF posts and the continuation of tunneling under the Egyptian border. Meetings have been held to coordinate these deployments between the PA and IDF leadership, the latest one held today between Mohammed Dahlan and Defense Minister Mohfaz. Dahlan was a critic of Yasser Arafat and was fired by him as head of security in Gaza, but he is now back in a senior role under Abbas.
Incidentally the UN Security Council has criticized Lebanon for not doing a similar thing and moving its armed forces to occupy the area of Southern Lebanon that it has left under the control of Hizbollah. While there are still 30,000 Syrian troops in Lebanon this move is unlikely.
Hamas has announced a temporary ceasefire to allow Abbas to negotiate a longer term one with Israel. The IDF have already ordered a reduction of actions in the territories, including cessation of targeted killings, except in the case of a "ticking time bomb," someone who is actively engaged in organizing or carrying out an imminent attack. This happened last week when Hamas fugitive Maher abu Sneineh was killed in Kalkilya. He was planning to carry out a suicide bombing in Rosh Ha'ayin nearby. He refused to give himself up and was killed in a gunfight, and two others were injured and captured, including the 16 year old intended suicide bomber. The important fact is that this incident did not stop the ceasefire going ahead, and other incidents of bombings and shootings continue in Gaza daily. The Karni crossing that was closed two weeks ago after the major terrorist attack that killed 6 Israelis was reopened by Israel for short daily periods.
Abbas has reportedly ordered changes in the Palestine Broadcasting Authority, that until now was a mouthpiece for the PA and Yasser Arafat. He has ordered that they should work as an independent reporting organization, not subject to PA censorship or merely as a propaganda arm of the PA.
As well as security contacts with the Abbas Government, Israel has decided to initiate diplomatic contacts with them, and there has been a meeting between PM Sharon's chief advisor Dov Weisglas and Saeb Erakat, PA Minister of negotiations. It has been announced that the two leaders Abbas and Sharon will meet in about 10 days. Even Sharon has gone on record that he is optimistic about these developments.
One notable exception to the positive changes is that in the municipal elections in Gaza last week Hamas won about 70% of the seats! This could be very bad, but may be ironically a way in which Hamas will be transformed from a military to a political party.
At the Davos Conference in Switzerland, the Arabs generally have taken the attitude that all Israel has to do is release ALL prisoners, withdraw from ALL illegal settlements back to the line of June 5, 1967, and magically there will be peace. However, the fact is that the settlements are definitely not illegal and Israel is not required to leave ALL the territory according to UN Resolution 242, and all of these changes require specific negotiations with the PA as well as continued coordination of security moves. But, all the developments so far are encouraging.

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