The Syrian shuffle

In his address to the Syrian Parliament the other day Pres. Bashar Assad
repeatedly stated that Syria is withdrawing from Lebanon because it wants
to, not because it is being forced to. But, this was just a face-saving
gesture. In reality Syria is being forced to withdraw from Lebanon under
threat of UN sanctions. It has lost all its allies except for Iran,
including Russia, the Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt) and
especially France, all of which have supported the removal of Syrian forces
from Lebanon.
As evidence for Syrian readiness to leave Lebanon, Assad said that they had
unilaterally reduced their troops from 40,000 to 14,000. But, this was also
done only as a result of previous external pressure. Now with the popular
uprising of tens of thousands of Lebanese in Beirut following the
assassination of former Pres. Rafik Hariri, and the strong statements of
Pres. Bush that Syria must withdraw immediately, Assad is feeling the heat
and his back is against the wall. Of course, in previous times his father,
Hafez Assad, would simply have massacred the demonstrators and that would
have been that. But, times fortunately have changed.
However, things are not necessarily so simple, as today there was a meeting
of heads of pro-Syrian organizations in Lebanon, calling for a demonstration
in Beirut tomorrow. One of the leaders of the pro-Syrian forces is Sheikh
Nasrullah, Head of Hizbullah. In fact, most Shi'ites who dominate southern
Lebanon, are pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian. But, it remains to be seen how
many will come out to demonstrate for Syria, and whether or not they can
stem the tide of popular support for Syria to go.
There may also be clashes between the two sides that could result in a civil
war again, similar to that which Lebanon had for many years, with the pro-
and anti-Syrian forces fighting it out. No doubt the Syrian secret service,
estimated at more than 10,000 in Lebanon, will be doing their best to stir
things up. However, the reconstruction of Lebanon and the suffering that
they previously experienced might have taught the Lebanese a lesson.
After the meeting today between Assad and the Lebanese President, the
redeployment of Syrian forces is to begin tomorrow with all of them
withdrawing into the Bekaa Valley, followed later by a gradual removal into
Syria. But, this plan seems to be too little too late to satisfy the
international community. As Pres. Bush said, why can't he simply give an
order to immediately withdraw into Syria, and he gave Assad a deadline of
May. Of course, there are two reasons for Assad's delay, one is to save
face by not appearing to be following America's dictates, and second Syria
has real interests in Lebanon that can't be abandoned so easily. The
Syrians have been using Lebanon as a money cow to milk whenever they like,
they have been stealing from Lebanon and lining their own pockets. That is
why the Syrian secret service will be anxious not to leave. So Assad is, as
they say, on the horns of a dilemma. Now he must withdraw, or be seen to be
withdrawing, but by doing so he loses the support of many hardliners in
Syria and Lebanon. If he is not careful this could mean the beginning of
the end to Assad family control of Syria itself.
A secondary, but nevertheless important outcome could be the downfall of
Hizbullah. Remember that all other militias in Lebanon, including those of
the Christians, the Sunni Muslims and some Shi'ite militias were disbanded
according to the Taif agreement of 1999. Hizbullah was the only one allowed
to continue to exist, in order to fight Israel. But, that need has entirely
evaporated, since Israel evacuated Lebanon, and has no forces within any
Lebanese territory. It is unlikely that the other Lebanese factions will
simply stand by and allow a single highly armed militia to exist that could
defy any sovereign Lebanese government. So the removal of Syrian forces
from Lebanon might bring about the fall of several dominoes, including a
possible rapprochement between Lebanon and Israel.