Netanyahu's resignation

Netanyahu's resignation yesterday came as a surprise, but it shouldn't have.
People have been speculating for months about when he would part company
from Sharon. Last week a column in the J'sam Post accused him of political
cowardice for not having the courage of his convictions for remaining in the
Sharon cabinet. Now some have accused him of political cynicism for waiting
so long when he had made his opposition to the disengagement policy clear
from the beginning, even though he went along with it. But, the role of
Minister of Finance, at which he was notably successful, proved too strong a
magnet for him to let go before now. He played an important function in
reversing Israel's economic woes due to the intifada, and in reforming the
economic system. Basically he left it to the last moment, until the day
when the cabinet approved the actual physical removal of three settlements
in Gaza and two in northern Samaria.
Now he is free to speak openly in opposition to the disengagement policy and
to compete with Sharon for the leadership of Likud. It is possible that
Likud will be split, between those on the right who will rally to Netanyahu
(even though some are disgusted that he waited so long) including Sharansky
and those on the left of the party who will remain with Sharon. How this
will play out will affect Israel's future, but there is no doubt now that
the disengagement plan will go ahead. Sharon has a majority in the cabinet
and the Knesset, and will not stop now, even if there are other defections,
such as Limor Livnat and Danny Naveh. Meanwhile Sharon has replaced
Netanyahu with Ehud Olmert at Finance, his deputy PM and loyal follower.
When Netanyahu was PM several years ago, he was criticized for going it
alone, for not involving his cabinet colleagues in his planning and
actions. But, this is a characteristic of Israeli leaders, from Ben Gurion
to Sharon. Others who have been criticized in this way include Rabin and
Barak. Certainly Netanyahu has learnt some things in his successful roles as
Foreign and Finance Minister, and is up for another go at PM. Whether he
will be able to achieve that role remains to be seen.
Once the Gaza disengagement takes place and the PA will likely be unable to
control Hamas and the terrorists, look for Israel to take another turn to
the right. Post-disengagement there will likely be new elections. There
will also be an increase in terrorism on the West Bank, as threatened by Abu
Samhadeneh, the head of the "Popular Resistance Committees," that modeled
itself on Hizbullah and their campaign against Israel in Lebanon. Now that
they feel that they have succeeded in 5 years to "expel" Israel from Gaza,
they will next focus on doing the same in the West Bank.
Following the disengagement Sharon will also likely adopt a more right wing
stance in order to try to placate his opposition and regain his right wing
supporters. But, he has estranged them too much for that. So eventually
Netanyahu may benefit from the fact that Sharon adopted and implemented the
disengagement plan from Gaza, and because after that the Israeli public will
want a stable period with no more such extreme unilateral concessions.