Pyrrhic victory

A major argument of the anti-disengagement forces is that the withdrawal
from Gaza and northern Samaria is giving a victory to the terrorists.
Indeed, Hamas is already claiming a victory and is organizing a big
celebration in Gaza to coincide with the actual withdrawal next week. They
will parade with their green flags and their machine guns held aloft, and
their leaders will claim that they forced Israel to withdraw by the use of
their arms and their sacrifice. In a poll conducted by a Palestinian
organization 95% of Palestinians agree with them. Let them believe it!
Perceptions do matter, but the reality is that although the terrorist
campaign known as the intifada did change the situation, it did not alter
the military balance. The IDF can defeat them, and the extent of terror is
greatly reduced because of Israel's security fence and because of the
targeted killings that the IDF has carried out. But another factor, one
must admit, is the involvement of Pres. Abbas and the influence of the
Americans in trying to arrange a ceasefire. Even though this may only last
for the period of the disengagement (we hope), this is certainly something.
There is a precedent for a situation like this. After the Egyptian forces
crossed the Suez canal on Yom Kippur, 1973, something the top IDF
intelligence officials never foresaw, they were all set to capture Sinai and
defeat the IDF. But, when their tank divisions strayed too far beyond their
missile shield they were subsequently decimated. The IDF tank forces,
under Gen Sharon, then did an amazing maneuver, crossing to the west bank of
the Nile, and trapping half of the Egyptian Army without enough food and
water. At that point the Egyptians, under Pres. Sadat, negotiated a
ceasefire, which eventually led to the Egyptian-Israel peace treaty. But,
in Egypt, the Suez canal crossing is still considered a huge victory and
they fervently believe that they won the 1973 war. There is no doubt that
for the Arabs, because they think that they should have obtained a victory
that they actually did do so, is a tremendous psychological factor. Henry
Kissinger was reported to have said, "let them believe it." This belief
undoubtedly played a role in allowing the Egyptians to save "face" and hence
be able to make a deal with Israel.
Whether or not the same dynamic will work in Gaza is unforeseen. But, it
could play a role in persuading the Palestinians that because they have
achieved a victory, now is the time to stop the attacks and talk peace.
Do I think that is likely? It all depends on how Pres. Abbas deals with
Hamas. Either Abbas must oppose and stop them, or there will be another
violent flare up after the disengagement. If he indeed let's them keep
their guns and if Islamic Jihad keeps its threat to continue attacks in the
West Bank and Israel, then all bets are off. Hamas will not stand by and
not use their firepower, especially since they believe that they have
achieved a victory. So then it will fall to the IDF to teach them how wrong
they are.