As if...

The Bush Administration has decided to pretend that all is well with Pres.
Abbas of the PA, as if...
as if there is no chaos in the PA, where armed gangs of thugs roam around at
will;
as if Pres. Abbas has any control over what is happening in the PA areas;
as if Pres. Abbas has any chance or intention of controlling the armed
terrorist groups;
as if Pres. Abbas has any intention of taking even the first step of the
Road Map;
as if there has been any reduction of incitement in the PA against Israel;
as if Pres. Abbas is a true democrat and intends to have elections in
January (that he has already postponed twice)
as if Hamas can participate in PA elections and they can still be regarded
as "democratic."
Why is Pres. Bush burying his head in the sand? Because he has got the
"solve the Palestine issue" bug, which seems to be endemic to the White
House. Now that Bush has a serious problem of credibility on Iraq, he
desperately needs to score points with the Arabs and with US voters, so he
has adopted the Clinton approach. This involves inviting the head of the
Palestinians into the White House, calling him a "man of peace," ignoring
all indications to the contrary, and then bringing pressure on Israel to
make concessions to him in order to be able to claim that he solved the
Israel-Palestine conflict (and then get his Nobel Prize).
I listened to interviews with two experts on the Palestinians on IBA News
(in English), Michael Widlanski of Hebrew University and Efraim Inbar, Head
of the Begin-Sadat Center. Both said that the American response to Abbas is
totally unrealistic. Within the PA Abbas is regarded as a weak leader who
has almost no influence on events. The prevalent view among Palestinians is
that he cannot last long in the face of almost overwhelming opposition. His
true opponents ignore him, and his supporters regard him as indecisive and
weak. His nickname among Palestinians is "the wet rag." He has never acted
on any decision that he has publicly announced to curb the power of the
terrorist organizations. His weakness is allowing Hamas and the others to
rearm and expand their activities.
It was announced yesterday that the PA intends to disarm the al Aksa Martyrs
Brigades (now known as the Yasser Arafat Martyr Brigades) and disband them
and instead induct their members into the PA security services, with
appropriate training. This was also announced several months ago but was
not implemented. These Brigades are responsible for most of the breakdown
in law and order in the PA. Last week a large portion of the al Aksa
Martyr's Brigades in Gaza announced that they no longer consider themselves
part of Fatah, and broke away and will act independently. This is a big
setback for Abbas, because if he has any hope of prevailing over Hamas he
needs to bolster his security forces.
Abbas also proposed that Israel and the PA negotiate through a
"back-channel." In this way no-one will know what is going on (as before in
Oslo) and he can claim things that are not true, and Israel can make further
concessions as they did before in secret negotiations. It's a prescription
for disaster. Let's hope Abbas falls before any secret agreement is
announced. At least Israel rejected this stratagem to bolster Abbas, the
American project of protecting and empowering Abbas is extremely suspect.
A few days ago Mohammed Dahlan, former head of security in the PA, returned
to Gaza after a few months of having medical treatment in Israel, Jordan and
Belgrade for a back problem. He was greeted by supportive crowds. Maybe he
will be strong enough to pull things together in Gaza. We will have to wait
and see.