Chaos and lawlessness

The situation in Gaza is so chaotic and lawless that it borders on the absurd.
On Wednesday a group of ca. 100 members of the Fatah military wing, the al
Aksa Martyrs Brigades, took over the HQ of the PA Electoral Commission in
Gaza City by force. There was a gun battle with the PA police, but no-one was
killed. The reason for the take-over, following other similar take-overs
in the past few weeks, was their dissatisfaction with the existence of
two Fatah lists, one of the "old" party leaders (mostly those who returned
from Tunisia with Arafat) and the "young guard," the local indigenous
Palestinians who have been frozen out of positions of authority. This list
includes in first place Marwan Barghouti, who is serving several life
sentences in an Israel jail for murder, and Mohammed Dahlan, the former head
of security in Gaza.
Because of the formation of the competing list (called Mustaqbal or Future) by
the young guard, this put Hamas in a stronger position relative to Fatah,
and this led to a backlash from the young guard, and they threatened to take
further drastic action unless Pres. Abbas gave in and allowed the formation of
one list for Fatah in which the young guard were heavily represented. Today
Abbas conceded to their threats, and the lists were merged. However, PM
Querei has been dropped from the list, as have several other prominent old
leaders, and so they may now react similarly.
This merger now brings Fatah back to a position of strength, so that it can
face Hamas, and so the threatened delay of the Jan 25 PLC elections may now
be over and the elections may take place as planned. Even with this re-merger
some factions of Fatah are threatening to continue to attack the "old guard"
despite the joint list. Just to show how little control Abbas has, yesterday
a British worker for a Palestinian relief organization and her visiting
parents were kidnapped in Rafah by an unknown group and their release is
being sought by the PA, so far without success.
If the elections are delayed or postponed Hamas threatens to take its own
drastic action. But, since Fatah has been greatly weakened by this public
split, Hamas may do better in the election and may win a majority of the
seats. If they do we will have the formation of a terrorist mini-state on our
doorstep, "Hamastan." And the irony is that this will have been brought about
mainly by the US, with Israeli connivance. Certainly pushing for democracy is
good in principle, but sometimes the outcome is unpredictable.
In Egypt, Pres. Mubarak has stopped at nothing to prevent any real opposition
to his rule, and he has greatly impeded the Muslim Brotherhood in the
electoral process, although they still obtained 100 seats in the Parliament
for the first time. Since Hamas is an offshoot of the MB, it will no doubt be
aided by them. With help from Egypt and Iran, and a determination by Hamas
to continue the terrorist killing spree as well as expanding the rocket
attacks on Israel, this doesn't look good for any future peace process.
The only way that an overt clash can be avoided is if the Palestinians vote
for Fatah, and somehow Abbas remains in a leadership position. All this is
very dicey, since after Arafat the various groups are still jockeying for
power, and they don't adhere to democratic niceties, even thought they pay it
lip service. It will be a real miracle if out of all this lawlessness and
chaos someone manages to pull democracy out of the Palestinian hat, or
keffiyeh.
Meanwhile the IDF is enforcing the new "security zone" in northern Gaza, and
has responded to Katyusha shellings on the Lebanon border that hit Kiryat
Shemona, and forced the inhabitants to spend a night in the shelters. There
were IAF attacks deep into Lebanon that hit a PFLP base near Sidon. The
Lebanese Government announced that it wants to stop these attacks, but how
this relates to Syria remains to be seen.