Thursday, December 01, 2005

PA democracy

While events on the Israeli political scene have given us a lot to be
thinking about lately, we should not ignore the parallel activities in the
PA. Several important events have happened recently including the Fatah
primaries for the January Legislative elections. The most violent action
was the shooting up and closing of ca. 12 polling stations in Gaza during
the Fatah Primaries a few days ago. It seems that not only are there
disputes about the Fatah candidates for office, but that the preferred
means to resolve the disputes is violence. Ballots boxes were stolen
and in some cases burnt. There has also been a lot of fraud and forgery.
Pres. Abbas has had three responses to this situation, his first was to
annul the whole Fatah primary process and start all over again. Then
because there were no similar cases of violence in the West Bank, in the
face of pressure from there he relented and banned only the results from
Gaza. Finally, after criticism from there, he reopened the polls to allow
the vote to be repeated. He has also vacillated on whether or not the
elections will occur in January at all. None of this bodes well for Fatah
in the actual elections.
In the recent municipal elections in Gaza and the West Bank (still
continuing in stages) Hamas scored a major victory by quadrupling the number
of municipalities that it controls. Although Fatah still has an overall
majority, their margin is gradually diminishing each time there is a vote.
Some commentators think that the Palestinian people are voting for Hamas
because they provide social programs, such as health and education, that the
PA does not adequately provide, and others think that it is because Hamas is
considered less corrupt than the old-timers of Fatah. While many discount
the violent anti-Israel program of Hamas as a vote-getter, nevertheless
there are many Palestinians who vote for this too. Certainly the proportion
of Palestinians who still support the use of suicide bombers against Israeli
civilians has lessened, from a high of ca. 90% in 2000 down to ca. 50% now.
More Palestinians are expressing an opinion that they are tired of all the
blood letting and terrible losses they have suffered, and would opt for a
quiet life. This is also the official platform of Fatah, since Pres. Abbas
and his spokesmen speak out against terrorism and say that it is against
Palestinian interests. But, if things are changing at all they are changing
very slowly.
One piece of evidence is that Marwan Barghouti, serving concurrent life
sentences for murder in an Israeli jail, was just voted the favorite
candidate by Fatah in Ramallah. He is seen as the erstwhile leader of
the so-called young guard of Fatah. There is no possibility, short of an
actual peace agreement, that he can be released from prison, and Sharon has
declared himself dead against this. But, it is another straw in the wind
showing the absolute deadendedness of the Palestinian movement. They always
choose the least reasonable option, they always shoot themselves in the
foot.
Meanwhile the IDF continues to kill and arrest terrorist leaders, and a week
ago managed to capture the deputy leader of Islamic Jihad in Jenin, hiding
in a student dormitory in the American College there. At a checkpoint north
of Ramallah IDF forces captured a Palestinian trying to smuggle in a
home-made mortar cannon hidden in the trunk of his car. Rocket shells are
still being fired from Gaza into the Negev and a house was damaged a few
days ago, and IDF artillery fire was returned, but so far there have been no
recent casualties.
Last night there were major clashes in Nablus, two terrorists were captured
and another 11 were arrested around the West Bank. Israel is doing the PA's
job making it safer for democracy in Israel and the PA.

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