Grave situations

There are two grave situations this morning, that of PM Sharon who suffered a
major stroke last night and is in a severe condition at Hadassah Hospital in
Jerusalem, and that of the State of Israel, that is in a state of political
crisis.
The law was recently tightened so that the succession transferred smoothly to
Deputy PM Ehud Olmert, but there is no doubt that Olmert is not Sharon. The
whole political situation is left open by Sharon's now inevitable absence from
the political process. Sharon has made himself indispensable, he is the only
strong leader who has captured the middle ground, who had the stature and
experience to impress himself upon the body politic, and who was trusted to
make the right decisions, even if these resulted in painful unilateral
concessions to the Palestinians. Sharon had transformed himself from the
former hard line, right wing military leader, hated by many for his role in
the 1982 Lebanon War, into a centrist statesman, willing to take chances for
peace.
Now that he has organized the centrist party Kadima, with a conglomeration of
former Likud and Labor politicians, the question is how can it proceed and
where can it go with its head chopped off. Olmert is a good man, but he has
neither the experience, the charisma nor the leadership qualities of Sharon.
Maybe he can run the country as an interim PM, but he has no following as a
replacement for Sharon. He is widely seen as a follower of Sharon, a chosen
"yes-man", not as a viable independent leader.
Shimon Peres is left in an ambiguous position, he is neither a true leader of
Kadima, nor could he return effectively to Labor. The new leader of Labor,
Amir Peretz, would not have him back, just as the new leader of Likud,
Netanyahu, would not take back those who left with Sharon for Kadima.
Netanyahu is the only other leader with credibility, who at least has previous
experience having been PM, FM and Minister of Finance, and done a good job at
least at some of them.
Kadima was anticipated in the polls to take ca. 42 seats in the Knesset in the
upcoming elections in March, only 3 months away. Unless Olmert or another
leader of Kadima can quickly establish a high degree of authority, this number
will rapidly slip away. The question is can Netanyahu or Peretz capitalize on
Sharon's loss and make significant gains themselves, without obviously
trashing Sharon himself.
Sharon was a genuine war hero. He established early on a reputation for
aggressive military action, for example, when with his commandos he attacked
the Mitla Pass in Sinai in 1967, and against direct orders carried out a
frontal attack, captured it and subsequently destroyed much of the Egyptian
army trying to escape through it. Or when in the 1973 Yom Kippur war, after
much of the general staff had been reduced to inaction, he out-maneuvered the
enemy, captured the West Bank of the Suez Canal, and trapped the Egyptian
Third Army, thus making a victory possible.
As a politician he started out in the same vein, but somewhere in the 1990's
he adopted the Rabin transformation, seeing the necessity of taking unilateral
action in order to break out of Palestinian stranglehold in the mutual
struggle. He has effectively overcome the terrorist intifada with a
combination of the security barrier (not originally his idea) and the targeted
killings. He has exploited his relationship with Pres. George Bush to become
a trusted American ally in formulating the so-called Road Map to peace. Now
that he is effectively removed from the scene, and there is also chaos in the
PA, no-one can predict what will happen in the near future.
Let us hope that Sharon does not die, and has many years left to live, and let
us also pray that the road may become clear for the future political
leadership of our country.