Russia and Hamas

Russia has always preferred to be controlled by a strong leader, essentially a
dictator. First there was the Czar, then there was Stalin, and now there is
Putin. Gradually Putin has centralized control in his own hands, by
downgrading the power of the regions, taking over all media, and destroying
the power of the 'oligarchs' (the mostly Jewish ultra-wealthy businessmen who
took over the Soviet era industries at very low prices). It is important to
remember that Putin was a KGB official and that he was chosen by Yeltsin
after three previous appointees couldn't hack it. Putin is tough, having
resurrected the war in Chechnya when the rebels there refused to accept his
dictates. He is maneuvering Russia in the international arena so that he has
an independent position, separate from those of the USA and EU. It is in that
context that one can understand his invitation to Hamas to visit Moscow.
Of course, this goes directly against the commitment that Russia endorsed as
part of the Quartet, of the US, UN, EU and Russia, that has appointed itself
to mediate the Israel-Arab conflict.
Given the massive international power of the Quartet, Israel has so far gone
along with their self-appointed dictates, that have been dominated by the US
fixation on the 'road map' plan of the Bush Administration. However, the
basic assumptions of that plan, of a two state solution arrived at by mutual
negotiations between the parties, have been undermined by the very
intransigence of the Palestinians reflected in the five years of the intifada,
that killed 1,600 Israelis, and the recent Hamas election victory in the PA.
The paradigm has shifted from bilateral relations to unilateral moves, as
exemplified by Sharon's disengagement from Gaza and the northern West
Bank, and now the Hamas statements that it will "never" recognize Israel,
as a prelude to a more intense Palestinian attempt to topple/destroy Israel.
If there is going to be no talking, then the decisions will be taken on the
battlefield. In order to do this Hamas realize that they need heavy weapons.
Where could they acquire them? Yes, the answer is Russia, of course.
For a lot of bucks (supplied probably by Saudi Arabia, Iran and others) and
at the same time flexing his independent muscles, Putin will happily meet with
and deal with Hamas. The excuse being that Hamas is now the democratically
chosen leadership of the PA, and anyway Russia itself has never labeled Hamas
a "terrorist organization." If such double-dealing is in the works you can
bet France won't be far behind. Even though Russia and France have both
claimed to be in favor of peace, and projected a front of neutrality, they
will happily provide weapons to the PA, with which they can continue their
"armed struggle" against Israel.
Israel has strongly criticized Russia, but it won't do any good. We must
prepare ourselves for a wholesale recognition of Hamas and the breakdown
of the international front that Olmert was carefully trying to build against
giving any recognition to Hamas. Now the Quartet mechanism itself is in
danger of collapsing, and even though the PA doesn't have a dime to rub
together, they will somehow find ways to acquire arms.