Unilateralism

Last night we heard Peter Hirschberg, the Editor of Ha'aretz Online (Hebrew
and English) talk about the political parties in Israel. He started by saying
that there is now unprecedented interest in the situation here, partly because
so much has been happening and so much is unpredictable. First there was
Peretz' unexpected win over Peres for the Labor chairmanship, then Sharon
formed Kadima, then he had his two strokes and Olmert took over, Bibi
won in Likud, and Hamas was elected in the PA. Its a continuous series
of ups and downs.
Yet despite this, Kadima has remained the most popular party, and its support,
although it has slipped a bit remains stable around 40 seats predicted in the
Knesset. Why is this? He thought that it's because Sharon read the mood of
the Israeli public and moved with it, namely that most Israelis decided once
the intifada got underway around 2000-2001, that there is no partner on the
other side, whether it was Arafat then or Hamas now, there is no-one to deal
with. Therefore we might as well decide our own fate, and draw our own lines.
That is what Sharon did, and that is what he planned to do (even though he
denied it, no-one believed him!) and that is what Olmert has now said he will
do.
Ironically, although the whole country moved leftwards, as Sharon adopted
Barak and Mitzna's policies, at the same time they also curiously turned
rightwards and discounted the Palestinians. The reaction to the intifada
terror campaign was, "screw you, we'll do what is in our interests alone and
without consulting you because you won't negotiate with us anyway."
As far as Likud is concerned its a shrunken party, having lost both to Kadima
and to Labor. Much of the leadership of Likud went with Sharon to Kadima,
and because of Bibi's financial policies, slashing social entitlements,
although this might have been good for the overall economy, it has alienated
the traditional support base of Likud in the poor, Sephardic towns like
Sderot, Ofakim, Dimona, etc. Many of these people will bite their tongues
and vote for Labor and Peretz.
By emphasizing the social agenda Peretz has established his own focus as
distinct from the others who focus on national security issues, but he has
managed a lackluster campaign and so Labor has lost some seats to Kadima.
But, since Kadima will have to form a coalition anyway it is likely to be a
Kadima-Labor one, with Shas as a probable third partner.
In the final analysis, all the major parties have concluded that the 'road
map' is going nowhere, and although they might nod in its direction
occasionally they have all but given up on it. Even though Bibi talks about
reciprocity from the Palestinians, his policy will be a modified form of
unilateralism. The differences will be on where the lines will be drawn
and whether or not the IDF will stay on the Palestinian side or the Israeli
side of the fence.
Although at this juncture Kadima seems way ahead, one major terrorist incident
could totally change the picture in the next two months. One major suicide
bombing or one rocket from the West Bank into the populous center of Israel
could cause a move to the right again as happened after Barak. There is still
time for anything to happen.
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