Sunday, January 29, 2006

End of the Bush doctrine?

The Hamas victory is a watershed in the history of the Palestinians and of the
whole Middle East. Until now the socialist/nationalist parties have
dominated Palestinian politics (the PLO and then Fatah). But, now after
the death of Arafat and the incompetence of Abbas, the Islamists are
ascendant. Because they are opposed to corruption, Hamas were described
as having "clean hands," but they are clean handed murderers. Terrorist
organizations cannot make democratic partners.
The Israeli Government, new as it is, seems unsure how to respond. Although
PM Olmert has tried to project a strong image by saying that Israel will not
deal with a PA Government containing Hamas, he is undermined by the
statements of his Ministers. Shimon Peres (who was Vice PM under Sharon)
stated that Israel might deal with a Hamas Government if it stopped terrorism,
and new FM Tzipi Livni said that if Hamas will not cooperate, Israel will take
more unilateral decisions. If they cannot get their act together they will
come off looking weak.
An election does not make a democracy! Having refused to form a coalition
with Hamas, some of the Fatah "opposition" took to the streets. There were
gunfights in various parts of the northern Gaza Strip, and an armed mob
attacked the PLC Parliament building in Gaza City, destroying part of it,
and was not persuaded to withdraw by Mohammed Dahlan, the former
Fatah Security Chief. No one knows for how long or if the Fatah gunmen can
be restrained, certainly they are not used to the concept of democracy. One
of their demands is the removal of Pres. Abbas who they see as guilty through
inaction of having brought them to this predicament. They are loath to have
Fatah give up power, and in the end this might result in more extreme civil
disturbances. Hamas might use legal means to restrain them, i.e. the PA
police and security forces, but they are predominantly loyal to Fatah, or it
might use its own Hamas armed forces, which could lead to a civil war. At
the very least one can conclude that this situation has not played itself out
yet.
What are the general implications for the Bush Doctrine of bringing democracy
to the Arab world? In Iraq it is unthinkable to have al Qaeda as a party
contesting the elections, yet the equivalent has been allowed in the PA. The
natural allies of Hamas are Assad of Syria, the Mullahs of Iran and the
insurgents in Iraq.
Now all the Arab countries will take the lesson, do not allow the Islamists to
participate in elections, because they will win, such is the primitive level
of political maturity in the Arab countries. So at a stroke this one election
will effectively end the Bush Doctrine. As a matter of fact this is not the
first time that Islamists have won an election, it happened in Algeria in
1992, leading to a military coup that cancelled the results, and in Turkey
some parties were declared illegal because they were anti-secular. Perhaps
we should salute Pres. Mubarak of Egypt, who realizes that his people are
not yet ready for democracy, after all who needs the Muslim Brotherhood
running Egypt. That would be another colossal set-back for the West,
comparable to the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and the formation of
"Hamastan" in the PA.

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