Double Game

The terrorist bombing in Tel Aviv last week, near the old bus station, luckily
did not kill any Israelis, but did wound ca. 30. By entering a small shwarma
(grilled meat) stand, the suicide bomber, pretending to be selling razor
blades, reprieved most of those who were sitting at tables eating outside.
According to Shaul Mofaz, the Minister of Defense, they have hard evidence
that the bombing was financed by Iran and planned in Damascus. He has shared
this evidence with the UK and US, so one must believe that it is true. It
coincides with the PA elections when even Hamas has been quiescent.
Since Islamic Jihad opposes the elections and so does Iran, it is most likely
that they hoped to induce some major Israeli reaction that could then be used
as an excuse to cancel or postpone the elections. That did not happen.
The PA elections are in many ways a farce, because whatever happens the
terrorist groups will continue to exist and operate alongside a supposedly
democratic system. This after all is the legacy of Arafat, founder of Fatah,
the major party in the PA. As before, Pres. Abbas either cannot or will not do
anything to stop this double game. US Secty of State Condoleeza Rice, said a
few weeks ago that the Palestinians can't have it both ways, they must either
choose democracy or terrorism, but apparently she was wrong, unless
something unexpectedly dramatic happens after the election. Anyway that
seems less likely because if Hamas is a major player in the PA Government it
will be even harder to act against them, and they are certainly not going to
change their basic policy or disarm voluntarily.
There are 11 parties contesting the elections. Fatah is expected to win by a
narrow margin over Hamas. Hamas is contesting an election for the first time.
Its popularity is based on two major factors, first it is regarded as less
corrupt than Fatah, and second it is less compromising in relation to Israel
and the Palestinian desire to regain the whole of former Palestine. Since
approximately one third of the electorate are expected to vote for Hamas that
indicates that at least one third continues to support the strategy of "armed
struggle," in other words continuing the use of suicide bombers (their only
means of attack?) against Israeli civilians. Given that many others in Fatah
(including their armed wing the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades) and Islamic Jihad
support terrorism, at least half of the Palestinians are in favor of
continuing it.
Notably Marwan Barghouti, who is in an Israeli prison serving multiple life
sentences for terrorist murders, is head of the Fatah list, put there by Abbas
under coercion from the Fatah young guard.
But there are some parties against terrorism, including the Third Way, a party
consisting of former Minister of Finance Salaam Fayad and the well-known
former Arafat spokesman Hanan Ashrawi, who are in favor of direct
negotiations with Israel (these are the same people who negotiated the Oslo
Accords and the so-called Geneva Accord), but their share in the polls is
only ca. 5%. There are other small parties with similar views, but they don't
add up to a serious challenge to the current Palestinian "double strategy,"
talk peace but continue terrorism. We'll see tomorrow what the PA
elections bring.
______________________
For past messages see: www.commentfromisraelblog.blogspot.com