Israel, the PA election and E. Jerusalem

Today the Israeli cabinet voted to allow Palestinians in East Jerusalem to vote
in the PA election, although without the participation of Hamas. Since Hamas
is a major player in the upcoming election that creates some problems, but the
distinction as far as Israel is concerned is clear.
Israel controls East Jerusalem and has incorporated it into the united city of
Jerusalem as its capital. Therefore Israel has the right to decide who can
enter and what they can do there. Hamas is narrowing the gap with Fatah in
the PA elections, at present Fatah has 36% of the projected vote and Hamas
31%. Since Fatah are afraid of losing out to Hamas, Pres. Abbas was looking
for an excuse to cancel or postpone the elections. The relative decrease in
support for Fatah is due entirely to its corruption and the split in the
movement between the old timers (who were in exile in Tunisia) and the young
guard who represent its military wing (al Aksa Martyrs Brigades. In order to
avoid a further postponement of the election the US has brought strong
pressure to bear on Israel to allow PA electioneering and voting in East
Jerusalem, and to emphasize this policy the US sent two representatives,
Elliott Abrams and David Welch here. So in order not to be blamed for
causing a postponement of the election and in order to satisfy American
interests, the Israeli cabinet has acceded to this partial intrusion of its
sovereignty. There are supposed to be 200,000 Palestinians who live in E.
Jerusalem. However, some of them also have Israeli id cards and do not
vote in the PA elections, and many more simply aren't interested in voting
so that the actual number is ca. 5,000 who vote in 5 Post Offices.
Hamas is a terrorist group, and is listed as such by the US, the UN and the
EU. It has carried out hundreds of suicide bombings against Israeli
civilians, and has killed hundreds of people. Hamas has a constitution that
denies Israel the right to exist and calls for its destruction by military
force. Further, a few days ago a Hamas representative issued a statement
saying that if Hamas is elected to lead the PA, they will break off all ties
with Israel and will stop all actions related to the peace process. Such an
outcome would be a major defeat for Pres. Abbas, for the PA, for Israel, for
the US, for the Quartet and for the EU. There is no reason why Israel should
aid its declared enemy Hamas to participate in the election and in acquiring
votes. In fact Hamas participation makes a mockery of the democratic process
(just as the involvement of the Nazis did in Germany in 1933. So Israel said
"yes" to the election, but "no" to Hamas participation in it. Any member of
Hamas who tries to enter Jerusalem will be arrested.
Abrams and Welch also saw Pres. Abbas and announced that a Hamas election
victory would put in doubt all US support for the PA, since the Congress has
passed a resolution to this effect. The EU has also announced it would reduce
its support for the PA in such an eventuality. No doubt the Palestinians
themselves reject what they see as outside western interference. But, they
stand to lose half of their b$1 annual income from these sources. They can't
exist without it!
Meanwhile, the IDF is in the process of destroying three small illegal
settlements or outposts on the West Bank, and is preparing to remove a
slightly larger one, Amona. In Hebron, the IDF sent in a large force to
remove Jewish settlers who, after a suicide bomber killed an Israeli there,
took over the Palestinian market that is built on former Jewish homes, that
were in turn taken over when the Arabs expelled all Jews from Hebron in 1929.
These Jews feel that they are taking back legally owned Jewish property. But,
the Government is eager to placate the Palestinian Arabs and the US by
reverting the situation to its former status. In the melee that broke out
one IDF officer was injured and was evacuated to hospital, but the settlers
were not removed. Another clash is expected to take place today.
Many Israelis are in two minds about this, since we feel that Jews should have
the right to live in Hebron, where Jews had lived from time immemorial. But,
on the other hand, now that Gaza has been given up, a momentum seems to
have been created to disengage Israelis from any flash point. Nevertheless,
it does not seem to have won us any positive results from the other side, on
the contrary, the very success of Hamas that is presaged by the electoral
polls and the fact that one third of the Palestinian population is likely to
support Hamas, does not bode well for the future. The continued disengagement
of Israel from the West Bank only gives them hope that continuing their armed
struggle will gain them even more one-sided concessions from the Israeli
Government as it is now constituted. It should be mentioned that the last act
that FM Silvan Shalom performed before resigning was to criticize this policy
in E. Jerusalem and Hebron on behalf of Likud.