Unknowables

The prospects for a positive outcome of the so-called peace process between
Israel and the Palestinians will now recede with time. There are two main
negative indicators, first the chaos and lack of control by the administration
in the PA, and second the loss of PM Sharon's firm hand on the Israeli helm.
In the PA, not only is there lawlessness and chaos, but some of the chaotic
actions tend to exacerbate the situation. Case in point, a few days ago a
group of al Aksa/Fatah gunmen took a bulldozer and simply demolished part of
the concrete border between Gaza and Egypt at Rafah. In the firefight that
ensued between the Egyptian border guards (who at first did not know if they
had permission to shoot) and the Palestinian gunmen, two Egyptian guards were
killed, and the border guard unit was withdrawn to a safer distance.
Apparently 200 Palestinians were arrested in Egypt for crossing illegally, but
noone knows how many hundreds more went both ways. This is the result of
allowing terrorist groups to retain their arms, so they feel they can, and do,
do anything they like. The excuse given for this attack was the arrest by the
PA police of Ala al-Hams, a leader of the Fatah armed wing, for the kidnapping
of three British civilians, Kate Burton and her parents, in Rafah last week.
In addition some PA offices are still occupied by armed gunmen, including most
offices in Rafah and the Election Authority headquarters in Gaza.
Another cause for concern is that Hamas is preparing to run in and may
possibly win the upcoming legislative elections in the PA in 2 weeks. That is
if they are allowed to take place. Because polls show that he is likely to
lose, Pres. Abbas is looking for an excuse for canceling or postponing the
elections that he can blame on Israel, and he is giving as an excuse the
Israeli refusal to allow Palestinian electioneering and voting in East
Jerusalem. According to past agreements with the PA, that have been applied
in previous elections, any Palestinian demonstrations are illegal in East
Jerusalem, and voting can take place but only through post offices, not PA
election booths. Since many of the Fatah armed factions are upset that their
candidates are not getting high enough billing on the combined Fatah list,
and that Hamas may win, they too are looking to subvert the elections. At
this point noone knows what will happen. If Hamas does win then the
likelihood that they will give up the armed struggle and stop rocket and
suicide attacks on Israel is very low. And even if they did, Islamic Jihad
has announced that it is continuing its attacks.
On the Israeli side the vacuum left by Sharon's now inevitable absence from
the political scene will be enormous. His ability to take unilateral action
and carry the political establishment and the country with him was
unparalleled, as he did with the Gaza disengagement. Although he denied that
he intended to carry out any more unilateral withdrawals, it is felt that he
would have drawn the borders of Israel in the West Bank, include all the large
settlements in Israel, and then withdraw to those borders unilaterally. This
has already been called the "big bang" process, since it would effectively
have given the Palestinians the maximum that they could get, ca. 85% of the
West Bank, and none of Jerusalem, without a specific negotiated agreement. At
present and for the foreseeable future neither Ehud Olmert, acting PM and
acting head of Kadima, nor any alternative leader has the stature to decide on
such a policy and carry it through. If Netanyahu of Likud is elected PM in
the March elections, then do not expect any such withdrawals. Only if Kadima
and Labor under Peretz win enough votes to form a coalition government, and
decide together on such a withdrawal, could it possibly happen. So the most
likely outcome is the existence of a stalemate for some time, at least until
the results of the March election become clear. Only if Kadima under Olmert
wins big (greater than 40 seats in the Knesset) could he then try to take
dramatic unilateral action. The future is fraught with unknowables, including
the possible actions of Iran that might result in a very significant change in
the geopolitical situation.