Contradictions?

Two apparently contradictory statements were made recently by leading
members of the Kadima party. Avi Dichter, former head of the secret service (Mossad), made a statement in which he said that Israelis need not be afraid of another sudden unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, as happened last year
from Gaza and northern Samaria under PM Sharon. He insisted that any further
withdrawals will be carried out only as a result of bilateral negotiations
with the PA or they won't occur at all.
By contrast, and almost on the same day, the office of PM Olmert issued a
statement that he will be speaking at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center at
their annual conference on the Middle East next week, and that he will issue a
major policy initiative that will include the intention of further Israeli
unilateral disengagements in the West Bank should the PA be unable to
negotiate due to their inability to control the terrorist organizations.
What are we to make of the apparent contradictions in these statements? One is
that Kadima needs to get its act together, that having a new party composed of
strong individuals is not enough, they have to actually agree on a coherent
policy. Another possibility is that these two statements are not as far apart
as it may seem and both are intending to give a similar message.
The overlap may be in the qualification given in Olmert's policy statement
that future unilateral disengagements from the West Bank may occur only if the
PA is unable to take control of the situation within the PA after the
elections. This corresponds to the period in which Dichter maintains there
will be no unilateral disengagements. But, on the other hand, if as
considered likely, Pres. Abbas is elected with a small majority of votes and
Hamas is a major player in the PA government, and Abbas does nothing to try
to disarm the terrorist organizations and bring them under control, then he
will be unable still to carry out the first step required of the PA in the
Road Map plan. Hence no bilateral negotiations will be possible, and then
under those circumstances, Olmert will do a Sharon-style disengagement from
the West Bank. He will draw the borders that are most expedient for Israel,
i.e. including all the major Jewish population centers on the West Bank, and
excluding all the major Arab population centers, and will then declare a
unilateral withdrawal to those borders. This will be a fait accompli, since
the PA has not and is unlikely to ever be under central political control or
ever be prepared to renounce terrorism and make an actual sincere peace
negotiation with Israel.
We will see in the near future which path will be taken by the Israeli
Government after the March election. A lot will depend on what happens in
the PA, and a lot will depend on which path Israelis believe the Kadima party
really intends to follow. If Israelis decide they don't want this uncertainty
or further unilateral pullouts, giving a boost to the terrorists, then they
might choose to vote for Likud. Bibi Netanyahu, in his speech at the Herzliya
Center conference will say that Likud will not carry out any withdrawals
without a reciprocal agreement with the PA, whenever that might be.