Hamas victory in PA election

Hamas has won the PA election, with ca. 80 seats out of 132, but the final
results are not yet known. The entire Fatah PA Government of PM Querei
resigned en masse immediately. Apparently Hamas leaders called Querei and
Pres. Abbas and offered to form a coalition Government of national unity with
them. But, whether or not this will happen is also unknown.
This result is both bad and good for Israel. It is bad, of course, because
Hamas is an unregenerate terrorist organization, committed to the destruction
of the State of Israel, the suicide bombing of Israeli civilians and the
establishment of an Islamic State in Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas issued
a statement that recognizing and negotiating with Israel is "not in their
agenda."
It is good for Israel in that matters become simpler. In a sense the
Palestinians have once again shot themselves in the foot by choosing the
extreme. I wrote recently about the "double game" that the Palestinians have
been playing with Israel and the world for the past 30 years, under Arafat and
Abbas, proclaiming their commitment to peace with Israel and to peaceful
negotiations with a cessation of violence, but at the same time allowing the
terrorist groups (Hamas, Islamic Jihad and al Aksa Martyrs Brigades) to
continue their activities. Now Hamas is going to be the government of the PA,
so there is no more ambiguity, the double game becomes once again a single
game, a war of Israeli survival against the Palestinian war of destruction.
We will be facing a "Hamastan" in the Palestinian territories.
Those who have been supporting the "poor" Palestinians, will find themselves
now supporting the most extreme Islamist religious elements, that can only be
described as Islamo-fascists. Those who think that by Hamas being included in
a Government that this will moderate their views are in for a shock. On the
contrary, this victory, coming on the heels of the Israeli withdrawal from
Gaza, will even more activate them to believe that they can in fact (with the
help of Allah) destroy Israel. If Hamas changed its basic policy it would no
longer be Hamas, as former Israeli FM Yigal Allon said, "a leopard that
changes its spots is no longer a leopard."
It must be noted that Hamas is in fact the Palestinian Branch of the Egyptian
Muslim Brotherhood, established when Gaza was under Egyptian control
before 1967. As such it is also a threat to the Government of President
Mubarak of Egypt. Also, Alman al Zawahiri, second in command of al Qaeda is
from Egypt and was a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Abu
Musab al Zarqarwi, who is the head of al Qaeda in Iraq, is a Palestinian
from Jordan, who has already infiltrated Jordan and has carried out suicide
bombings there. It is considered likely that he has established covert
relationships with Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank.
This all points to an increase in terrorism and attacks upon Israel and to an
increase in Israeli responses. In other words there is likely to be a war
situation now. No doubt Iran will have some involvement in these activities.
This all makes the situation much more dangerous, and it is likely that the
Israeli public will retract from its move towards the Center and will tend to
support a more rightist position. This could catapult Netanyahu into the
position of PM unless Olmert quickly and strongly shows some responses
which are different from those for which Kadima was formed.
Both the US and EU have criticized this election outcome, and have stated
that they will not deal with Hamas as long as it retains its intention of
destroying Israel and continues to use terrorism. It will be interesting to
see how Hamas manages financially without the funds on which the PA
depends to pay its salaries. One thing this has shown is that the American
focus on democracy in the Arab world is both naive and premature. Polls
have shown that at present 60% of Palestinians support the use of suicide
bombings against Israeli civilians. Many on the left in Israel pooh-poohed
this fact and said that the Palestinian vote for Hamas was a protest vote
against Fatah corruption. But, the reality now is that their lives are just
as threatened as those Israelis who held right wing views that did not trust
the Palestinians. Even Yossi Beilin, the head of the leftist party Yahad
(Meretz) admits this is a set-back for peace.
However you look at it, this election result is a manifestation of the
Palestinian popular will. They have tried the PLO and Fatah, that has not
gained for them their fundamental goal of the destruction of Israel. Now
they are trying the party that unreservedly supports this aim. We'll see
how this choice helps them.