The coalition battles begin

Today in the Jerusalem Post there was a page of opinions on what the results
of the elections mean, and the contributions varied all over the place, from
this was the first really "social" election in our history, to this gives a
mandate to Olmert to unilaterally withdraw, to this wasn't enough of a
mandate to do anything really serious, to this represents a defeat for the
right, to this represents the apathy of the electorate.
The right received less seats than usual, a total of 32 (Israel Beiteinu 12,
Likud 11, NU-NRP 9), but the far left did poorly too, with Meretz getting
only 4 seats as opposed to 8 in the last Knesset, and the Arab parties got 10
seats altogether. The left's policy of engagement with the Palestinians and
an emphasis on negotiations was also definitely rejected.
Whereas in the US there are only 2 parties and in the UK there are 3, in
Israel there will be 12 parties in the Knesset, and with Kadima's majority
quite small, and with 5 parties with a moderate number of seats: Shas (13),
Israel Beiteinu (12), Likud (11), NU-NRP (9), Gil (Pensioners)(7), it makes
the outcome almost impossible to predict. This highlights the problem of the
Israeli proportional representation system, it is more democratic but we end
up being ruled by party functionaries, not local representatives. We need a
new system, but how to get it?
Olmert has started coalition talks with Labor, and there is already a dispute
over who will get the Finance Ministry. Since Olmert is basically a
conservative (remember that he was in Likud for 30 years) and Peretz is a
socialist, this is not unexpected. Olmert knows that if he turns over the
economy to Peretz, then he will undo all the good things that Netanyahu has
done for the economy (for which he was punished by the electorate), and
reverse the improved economic situation. The markets will fall, we will have
increased inflation, and the poor won't be helped as much as they should be.
A Kadima spokesperson said that turning over the Treasury to Peretz would
be equivalent to turning over the Defense Ministry to Lieberman, it simply
won't happen. There is a report that the socioeconomic parties, Labor, Shas
and the Pensioners (with a total of 40 mandates) will negotiate with Olmert
as a 'social bloc' in order to take control of all the social ministries
(Interior, Health, Social affairs, Education, Trade and Labor). But, there is
a remote possibility that Olmert could form a coalition without Labor. In
that case he would definitely need Shas and Israel Beitenu. The latter is
problematic, because although Lieberman has stated that he wants to be in
the coalition, he is opposed to all withdrawals, including the so-called
"convergence plan" that Olmert has floated. That would close down all the
illegal and some legal settlements, and concentrate all the settlers into
the major settlement blocs, Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim, and Etzion, and then
annex those to Israel.
This period is like a chess game with many players, and Olmert holding most
of the pieces. But, he'll have to give up a lot of them and that is hard to
do. Its especially hard when some of the parties, such as the Pensioners, have
no idea what they want. The question is whether or not their representatives
with an average age well up into the seventies will survive the next four
years.