Election campaign
The official election campaign began last night, with the airing on TV of the ads of the major parties. The differences between them were quite interesting. The Labor one came first, with a mini-bio of Amir Peretz, because people don't know him well, showing him in the Army, where he was wounded, married with kids, and then sitting in a big office looking managerial. Then he was with his "team", smiling a lot. The main message was the economy, and they promised to introduce a minimum wage, like the US and UK.
Then came Likud, in which Netanyahu spoke of the danger of the new Hamas victory in the PA to Israel, the formation of a mini-Iran on our borders. The message came across loud and clear, only Likud could deal effectively with this danger, and then showing Olmert and the slogan "don't put the state in his hands" . Finally Bibi was shown in smiling mode, playing chess (very significant) with his father (a famous historian). There were also some words from former generals.
The Kadima ad started with the history of the state, from Ben Gurion to Sharon and the slogan "going forward," emphasizing continuity. Then there was a chat from the PM's office with Olmert, who smiled a lot, as if to put us at our ease. There were a few shots of the disengagement from Gaza, showing solicitous soldiers. Then shots of his "team" especially focusing on the generals. Peres appeared for a second.
The differences between these ads was great, Labor emphasized social issues, Likud the security danger of the new Hamas win to Israel, and Kadima that the State would be in good hands with Olmert. Only Likud showed the Hamas marching in the PA and related it directly to terror in Israel, the other two conspicuously avoided that. You might say that Likud was trying to frighten us into voting for them, but I think we should be afraid, very afraid.
Here is an exchange of views that might be considered typical of debates going on between Israelis:
From Stuart West (immigrant from England):
Dear Jack:
Friends that we are, I must nevertheless differ from you on your politics. Personally, I can think of no worse outcome to the Israeli General Election than Netanyahu and the Likud coming to power, so much so, that I would have second thoughts about continuing to live here - if that were practical (which it is not). Apart from his zig-zagging record - particularly on his Gaza withdrawal record - he is man whose only interest is Netanyahu and not Israel. Furthermore, many people today are below the poverty line because of his financial policy in government.
The Likud dreams of a greater Israel are just not pragmatic. What we need is to set our boundaries - by ourselves, if there is no partner with whom to negotiate - so that we can ensure a solid Jewish majority in the State and not have to rule over Palestinian Arabs. Apart from the Jewish population centers, it makes no sense demographically to retain those parts of the West Bank where the Arabs are in the majority. Kadima would retain Ariel, Ma'aleh Adumim and Gush Etzion, as well as Kiryat Arba, the Jewish areas of Hebron, the Ofra block and the Jordan Valley. What more do you want? Of course, Jerusalem is the big issue, but that city is already de facto divided, so there is no reason why the Arab areas should not become the capital of a Palestinian state. Olmert is now working on gaining international support for another unilateral withdrawal from the other parts of the West Bank within the next four years. He is being both pragmatic and diplomatic. Follow the Likud line and Israel would soon be back to being a pariah state again. Olmert's pragmatism will ensure a Jewish state within internationally recognized borders. For me there is no question - a vote for Kadima is the only sensible vote to cast. Possibly even Labor has attractive policies, not so different from Kadima, but I could not trust Peretz. However, someone like Braverman with his years of experience at the World Bank is obviously an ideal candidate for Finance Minister. So, perhaps we may achieve an outcome with Kadima and Labor in coalition. No room for Likud, whose rebels have all but destroyed the party. Likud simply cannot be trusted. A vote for Likud is not only a wasted vote - it is also a vote against Israel's best interests, both at home and abroad.
Stuart
And here is my reply:
Dear Stuart:
Reasonable men may differ in their political views. But, I can think of a worse outcome than Netanyahu/Likud being elected and that would be having Peretz/Labor winning. But, even if Kadima wins they are likely to form a coalition with Peretz, and this would be almost as bad. Further, you castigate Netanyahu for his zig-zag record regarding the Gaza disengagement, but Sharon reversed himself completely, and this was far worse. I went along with the Gaza disengagement, mainly because I, like many others, trusted Sharon (as I would not have trusted Barak or Mitzna), but nevertheless one must admit that he implemented their left-wing policy.
Bibi, like all politicians tried to maximize his power while maintaining credibility. I see nothing wrong with this, especially since he had an excellent excuse, he was reversing the socialist trends (or increasing the market trends) in the Israeli economy (e.g. by selling off nationalized companies). It's true that many Israelis at the lower economic level will suffer from reduced government spending, but all experts agree that that is what is necessary for a healthy Israeli economy. Now we have 5.5% growth and the economy is stronger than it was, because of Bibi's reforms. Just as Thatcher reformed the British economy and Reagan the American one, so Bibi did here. He should be applauded for that. A Kadima-Labor coalition will reverse these necessary reforms! Incidentally, my son-in-law has worked closely with Braverman in BGU, and thinks he is an arrogant opportunist, who is untrustworthy and indecisive.
I do not see Likud as "expansionist." I am sure that in the final analysis Likud like Kadima will be prepared to withdraw from most of the West Bank. But, the question is when and how. Kadima, or Olmert, is too intent on quickly showing that he is following Sharon in this, and he has already announced such withdrawals. But, this is not recognizing the changed situation with Hamas in power in the PA. I prefer that there be no further withdrawals or talk of them while Hamas refuses to recognize us, etc. Likud adheres to the principles of the Road Map, even though to all intents and purposes it is dead without a Palestinian partner. But we should not announce our withdrawals or our future borders now. As the EU Foreign Minister already stated, they will become the starting point for future negotiations, this is self-defeating. I'd rather we keep military hold on everything, pending a Hamas defeat or reversal. Why give away either our starting position (what we think as final) now, or give them any more land from which they can launch rockets at us. If Olmert does indeed withdraw as he has said he will then Bibi is right, BG airport and most of the Sharon will be within their rocket range and it will be a disaster. Bibi has stated he will not relinquish that land pending reciprocal arrangements/ negotiations with the PA.
Finally, Kadima has collected most of the corrupt politicians from Likud. Omri Sharon and Tzahi Hanegbi, who were in Likud, moved to Kadima. Olmert is not so pure (what about his house). I work from the assumption that all Israeli politicians (and maybe all in the world) are corrupt to a degree, apart from a select few (Sharansky, Edelstein Steinitz - all Likud). But, at least Bibi has experience as PM, FM and Finance Minister. He is also a far superior spokesman than any of the other candidates. I am sure that like all previous attempts at forming centrist parties (Rafi, Dash, Shinui, The Center Party), Kadima will be a transient phenomenon. How can a party be stable with extreme left and right wing politicians in it together, unless all of them have no principles. Israel is stabler with a strong right wing government and a left wing opposition, and that's what I want. So don't waste your vote on Kadima, without Sharon its a flash in the pan.
Best
Jack
Then came Likud, in which Netanyahu spoke of the danger of the new Hamas victory in the PA to Israel, the formation of a mini-Iran on our borders. The message came across loud and clear, only Likud could deal effectively with this danger, and then showing Olmert and the slogan "don't put the state in his hands" . Finally Bibi was shown in smiling mode, playing chess (very significant) with his father (a famous historian). There were also some words from former generals.
The Kadima ad started with the history of the state, from Ben Gurion to Sharon and the slogan "going forward," emphasizing continuity. Then there was a chat from the PM's office with Olmert, who smiled a lot, as if to put us at our ease. There were a few shots of the disengagement from Gaza, showing solicitous soldiers. Then shots of his "team" especially focusing on the generals. Peres appeared for a second.
The differences between these ads was great, Labor emphasized social issues, Likud the security danger of the new Hamas win to Israel, and Kadima that the State would be in good hands with Olmert. Only Likud showed the Hamas marching in the PA and related it directly to terror in Israel, the other two conspicuously avoided that. You might say that Likud was trying to frighten us into voting for them, but I think we should be afraid, very afraid.
Here is an exchange of views that might be considered typical of debates going on between Israelis:
From Stuart West (immigrant from England):
Dear Jack:
Friends that we are, I must nevertheless differ from you on your politics. Personally, I can think of no worse outcome to the Israeli General Election than Netanyahu and the Likud coming to power, so much so, that I would have second thoughts about continuing to live here - if that were practical (which it is not). Apart from his zig-zagging record - particularly on his Gaza withdrawal record - he is man whose only interest is Netanyahu and not Israel. Furthermore, many people today are below the poverty line because of his financial policy in government.
The Likud dreams of a greater Israel are just not pragmatic. What we need is to set our boundaries - by ourselves, if there is no partner with whom to negotiate - so that we can ensure a solid Jewish majority in the State and not have to rule over Palestinian Arabs. Apart from the Jewish population centers, it makes no sense demographically to retain those parts of the West Bank where the Arabs are in the majority. Kadima would retain Ariel, Ma'aleh Adumim and Gush Etzion, as well as Kiryat Arba, the Jewish areas of Hebron, the Ofra block and the Jordan Valley. What more do you want? Of course, Jerusalem is the big issue, but that city is already de facto divided, so there is no reason why the Arab areas should not become the capital of a Palestinian state. Olmert is now working on gaining international support for another unilateral withdrawal from the other parts of the West Bank within the next four years. He is being both pragmatic and diplomatic. Follow the Likud line and Israel would soon be back to being a pariah state again. Olmert's pragmatism will ensure a Jewish state within internationally recognized borders. For me there is no question - a vote for Kadima is the only sensible vote to cast. Possibly even Labor has attractive policies, not so different from Kadima, but I could not trust Peretz. However, someone like Braverman with his years of experience at the World Bank is obviously an ideal candidate for Finance Minister. So, perhaps we may achieve an outcome with Kadima and Labor in coalition. No room for Likud, whose rebels have all but destroyed the party. Likud simply cannot be trusted. A vote for Likud is not only a wasted vote - it is also a vote against Israel's best interests, both at home and abroad.
Stuart
And here is my reply:
Dear Stuart:
Reasonable men may differ in their political views. But, I can think of a worse outcome than Netanyahu/Likud being elected and that would be having Peretz/Labor winning. But, even if Kadima wins they are likely to form a coalition with Peretz, and this would be almost as bad. Further, you castigate Netanyahu for his zig-zag record regarding the Gaza disengagement, but Sharon reversed himself completely, and this was far worse. I went along with the Gaza disengagement, mainly because I, like many others, trusted Sharon (as I would not have trusted Barak or Mitzna), but nevertheless one must admit that he implemented their left-wing policy.
Bibi, like all politicians tried to maximize his power while maintaining credibility. I see nothing wrong with this, especially since he had an excellent excuse, he was reversing the socialist trends (or increasing the market trends) in the Israeli economy (e.g. by selling off nationalized companies). It's true that many Israelis at the lower economic level will suffer from reduced government spending, but all experts agree that that is what is necessary for a healthy Israeli economy. Now we have 5.5% growth and the economy is stronger than it was, because of Bibi's reforms. Just as Thatcher reformed the British economy and Reagan the American one, so Bibi did here. He should be applauded for that. A Kadima-Labor coalition will reverse these necessary reforms! Incidentally, my son-in-law has worked closely with Braverman in BGU, and thinks he is an arrogant opportunist, who is untrustworthy and indecisive.
I do not see Likud as "expansionist." I am sure that in the final analysis Likud like Kadima will be prepared to withdraw from most of the West Bank. But, the question is when and how. Kadima, or Olmert, is too intent on quickly showing that he is following Sharon in this, and he has already announced such withdrawals. But, this is not recognizing the changed situation with Hamas in power in the PA. I prefer that there be no further withdrawals or talk of them while Hamas refuses to recognize us, etc. Likud adheres to the principles of the Road Map, even though to all intents and purposes it is dead without a Palestinian partner. But we should not announce our withdrawals or our future borders now. As the EU Foreign Minister already stated, they will become the starting point for future negotiations, this is self-defeating. I'd rather we keep military hold on everything, pending a Hamas defeat or reversal. Why give away either our starting position (what we think as final) now, or give them any more land from which they can launch rockets at us. If Olmert does indeed withdraw as he has said he will then Bibi is right, BG airport and most of the Sharon will be within their rocket range and it will be a disaster. Bibi has stated he will not relinquish that land pending reciprocal arrangements/ negotiations with the PA.
Finally, Kadima has collected most of the corrupt politicians from Likud. Omri Sharon and Tzahi Hanegbi, who were in Likud, moved to Kadima. Olmert is not so pure (what about his house). I work from the assumption that all Israeli politicians (and maybe all in the world) are corrupt to a degree, apart from a select few (Sharansky, Edelstein Steinitz - all Likud). But, at least Bibi has experience as PM, FM and Finance Minister. He is also a far superior spokesman than any of the other candidates. I am sure that like all previous attempts at forming centrist parties (Rafi, Dash, Shinui, The Center Party), Kadima will be a transient phenomenon. How can a party be stable with extreme left and right wing politicians in it together, unless all of them have no principles. Israel is stabler with a strong right wing government and a left wing opposition, and that's what I want. So don't waste your vote on Kadima, without Sharon its a flash in the pan.
Best
Jack
posted by Jack Cohen at 11:18 AM
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