Hamas blinks

Within the past week, apart from PM Olmert's successful visit to the US, a lot
has happened. In Gaza, three Hamas gunmen were kidnapped by Fatah security
men and were shot, one died. Then on Wednesday another leading Fatah
security supporter of Pres. Abbas, Nabil Hodhod, was killed in a car bomb in
central Gaza. The Head of the military wing of Hamas on the West Bank,
Ibrahim Hamed, was arrested by IDF forces in a large scale raid into Ramallah.
He was wanted for masterminding the Moment Cafe and the Hebrew University
cafeteria bombings in Jerusalem among others, and was responsible for killing
60 Israelis.
On Thursday, to try to stop the looming civil war in the PA, Pres. Abbas
called a two-day "national dialog" conference in Ramallah and essentially gave
Hamas an ultimatum. Either they accept the prior decision of the PLO/Fatah
and the PA to accept a two state solution with Israel, and give up their fight
"to liberate all of Palestine," within 10 days or he will organize a
referendum in 2 weeks of the whole Palestinian population. He also gave them
an ultimatum regarding the presence of their new security force on PA streets.
Apparently it worked and Hamas blinked, because this morning (Friday) there
were no more Hamas security forces to be seen in the PA, they had been
withdrawn. In their place was the Fatah dominated PA security force at every
intersection. Also, in a complex deal aimed to help the PA get the money
blocked by the EU and others, Hamas agreed to allow Abbas to control all PA
finances, and they accepted his ultimatum regarding the "previous agreements"
of the PA in order to avoid a referendum (that they were probably afraid they
would lose). This means, although Hamas spokesmen were evasive, that Hamas
has in effect changed its policy and accepted a two-state solution.
However, Hamas is not monolithic, and its leaders abroad, particularly Khaled
Mashaal in Syria, are unlikely to accept this sudden climb down. The pressure
on Hamas was intense, and included the Egyptians and other Arab regimes. But,
many experts will consider this about-face as merely a cover for a deeper
unchanged intention on the part of Hamas, and those who argued that Pres.
Abbas had no power, including PM Olmert himself, appear to have been proven
wrong.
On Thursday, the Israeli Government announced that it is going to allow sales
of arms to the PA, specifically for the use of the Presidential Guard, the
infamous Force 17 that spearheaded Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians
under Arafat. But, now the arms are intended for the protection of Pres.
Abbas, who is considered vulnerable to assassination either by one of the
Islamist organizations (Hamas, Islamic Jihad) or al Qaeda, that is now known
to be operating in the PA, one of the rewards of the disengagement from Gaza.
This is one of the most crackpot concessions that any Israeli Government has
made to the Palestinians, and by directly interfering in internal PA issues
may in fact make Abbas more vulnerable to assassination, since he will now be
seen as Israel's and Bush's stooge in the PA.
Before we all start celebrating, things are not so rosy from an Israeli
point-of-view as they might appear. What Abbas is pressuring Hamas to accept
is the "Arab Plan" that was proposed by Saudi Arabia, endorsed by the Arab
League, and proposed by the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails (both Fatah
and Hamas) and rejected by Israel. This is essentially a non-negotiable Arab
position that Israel must withdraw to the borders before the June 1967 war,
with no exceptions (no "land grabs"), and accept the "right of return", i.e.
allow all Palestinian refugees that want to return to Palestine and get
back their houses/property. In response, the Arab regimes and the Palestinians
would recognize Israel within its original 1948 borders. Now all Arabs know
that these demands are unacceptable to Israel, but it certainly puts more
pressure on Israel if, or rather when, this proposal is rejected, especially
if this is a wall-to-wall Arab plan. It is characteristic of the two sides
that the Arab proposal consists of non-negotiable demands, while the Israeli
proposal (Olmert's newly named "realignment plan") is one of compromise
and takes into account the interests of the other side, even if not
completely.
Even if this Arab plan is not acceptable to Israel, it could become the basis
of negotiations between Olmert and Abbas, that Olmert promised Bush to pursue.
And the fact that Hamas, as far as we know, has agreed to accept this Arab
plan for a two state solution may represent the first crack in the armor of
the extreme Islamist policy to destroy Israel.