Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Empty threats?

Some considerations regarding the current Palestinian escalation of the conflict near Gaza:
1. The armed attack took place on Israeli territory , and was a clear premeditated act of war.
2. Two IDF soldiers were killed and 4 badly wounded, as well as the soldier who was abducted.
3. Current reports are that Cpl. Shalit's wounds may not have been as bad as first thought, but since the source of information is Palestinian one cannot count on this.
4. A communique was issued by the terrorist organizations holding the solider (including the "Islamic Army") that Israel must first release all women and children in its custody before they will give any information about the soldier. PM Olmert dismissed this and reiterated that Israel does not negotiate with terrorists, particularly when the women and children (none less than 14) have all been arrested and tried for security offenses (carrying bomb belts, attacking soldiers at checkpoints, attempting to or actually stabbing Israelis, etc.).
5. Numerous countries and organizations are attempting to mediate in order to effect the release of the soldier. The French are involved because he is also a French citizen, the Egyptians are talking to Hamas and Pres. Abbas, also the US, the Vatican, etc. But, one can predict that none of this will help, because while Abbas is the main contact point, and he has issued threats of his own to the terrorists, he has no control over them. Even the Hamas Government pretends that it has nothing to do with this, even though the tunnel took months to dig, and the attack was planned and headed by Hamas operatives. It is inconceivable that with Hamas discipline that has been demonstrated before that the Hamas leadership did not know of this action in advance.
6. Israel possesses sophisticated technology to detect tunneling. This was used before near the Rafah border crossing, and was supposed to be more generally used. However, most Generals did not like to be "advised" how to carry out their security tasks and so ignored the technology. A Committee has been set up to evaluate the mistakes (and there were mistakes) that were made. Most egregious is that there was noone on duty guarding the tanks, all members of the teams were asleep, and there was noone guarding the rear, assuming that all attacks would come from the direction of Gaza rather than from the Israeli side.
7. PM Olmert and the Israeli Government has so far made empty threats that they will "punish" the perpetrators. The US has asked Israel to wait and let the diplomatic feelers have more time, but that is playing into the hands of the terrorists. Sitting outide Gaza and issuing empty threats, while showing stationary vehicles to the media will accomplish nothing. The Government has been attacked from the right (go in immediately and take Hamas hostages) and the left (do nothing and talk to Hamas). But, the Israeli centrist Government should be supported by all those liberals in the West who always call for restraint. Olmert has shown exemplary restraint , but this cannot continue much longer.
8. Ironically Israel withdrew from Gaza completely in order to reduce tensions and conflict there!

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