Wednesday, August 23, 2006

They shall not pass!

Just as the Spanish Civil war (1936-9) was a prelude to WWII (1939-45), so the recent war between Hizbollah and Israel may have been the prelude to WWIII (or IV if you count the Cold War). In both cases the preliminary war was fought by proxy, in WWII the Fascists, Germany and Italy, supporting Gen. Franco and his forces against the Republicans, supported by Stalin's Soviet Union and the democratic West, Britain, France and the USA (although these were not represented by national forces but by volunteers from each country).
If you compare the situations then and now (notwithstanding many differences) you have the same reluctance on the part of the democratic nations to take the side of the democratic nation under attack, then initially Czechoslovakia. This time it is Israel, with Iran the power threatening its destruction. While the democratic nations finally came to their senses and fought Nazi Germany in WWII, they did very little to save the Jewish people caught up in the horrors of the Holocaust.
The proxy wars fought in various places between satellites of the Soviet Union and allies of the USA were very similar. When Israel defeated Egypt and Syria in several wars from the 1960's to the 1980's this was considered a victory for US armaments and technology versus the Soviet versions.
Once again the Jews are the touchstone, the "canary in the mine." But, this time as a democratic nation with an army and air force to defend itself. Even though Hizbollah did better than most people expected in the recent war and the IDF did worse than expected, this doesn't change the basic equation. Hizbollah is doing Iran's bidding, the work of the Islamofascist ideology that considers all infidels fair game, and would see Western airplanes blown out of the sky and civilians deliberately targeted. The "axis of evil" (to quote Bush) or the "arc of extremism" (to quote Blair), consists of Iran, Iraqi insurgents, Syria, Hizbollah, Hamas, and "home grown" terrorists loyal to al Qaeda, mostly trained in Pakistan and Afghanistan, such as those just charged in the UK with terrorist offenses intending to blow up planes.
I am reading a book currently about the Islamic revolution in Iran, and the same situation arose as in Europe in the 1930's, where the communists and marxists sided with the fascists against the liberals and democrats, because they wanted a complete revolution in society rather than saving bourgeous lives. But, it turned out that their lives were the first ones that were taken, both by the Nazis and the Khomeinists in turn. Marxists and communists were arrested in Iran, while themselves calling for the destruction of democratic norms, and were tortured and executed in their thousands. They thought they could contain the Islamists, but they were wrong, just as the communists in Germany thought they could contain the Nazis. So the Islamic revolution of 1979 overtook all opposition, just as the Nazi revolution did in Germany in 1939, and Iran is only now recovering its strength after the Iran-Iraq war that bled it for 8 years.
Now the Islamofascist regime in Iran is flexing its muscles and showing off its military might in war games, while at the same time reaching for the development of nuclear weapons (no sane person can accept their denials). Hopefully the UN SC will place sanctions on Iran, although this will be done reluctantly and ineffectually, just as the UNIFIL force in S. Lebanon will provide a cover for the recovery and re-arming of Hizbollah. Many Western liberals are certain that Pres. Bush is planning a war against Iran, much like that in Iraq, and are dead against it. But, eventually the West will be forced to confront Iran and its expansionist policies. They really mean it, God is on their side and they seek to overthrow the evil and decadent Western culture and replace it with their own version of fundamentalist Islam.
It is Israel's interest not to become a "Czechoslovakia" in that process, not to be a small democratic nation thrown to the dogs, to placate the appetite of the Islamofascists. Many people in the West, who have come to regard the Palestinian conflict as the central feature of the Middle Eastern situation, are making a huge mistake. The Palestinians have been a failure in establishing their own state, and just like the weak Lebanese State are being used by a stronger force for its own purpose. That is why Iran bankrolls Hamas and Islamic Jihad, just as it does Hizbollah. The "moderate" Sunni Arab countries, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are only just beginning to realize the threat to them in this movement. They are making their separation from Syria and Hizbollah known, even as at the same time that they cannot bring themselves to say anything positive about Israel's fight against Hizbollah.
Noone can predict what will happen in the future, but a further round of fighting between Israel and Hizbollah is likely, given the oft-stated plans of the Iranian regime. Whether or not a Democratic candidate will be elected in the US to replace Bush or whether Israel is left to go it alone remains to be seen. But, Israel cannot effectively fight Iran alone and the US knows that. But, if Iran sees that the West does nothing effectively to stop the rearming of Hizbollah, as is likely since neither UNIFIL nor the Lebanese Army will disarm Hizbollah, and if they think that the US will not come to Israel's aid, perhaps after the experience in Iraq, then we can expect a second round possibly in two years or less to include long range ballistic missiles from Iran falling on Israel. And what will we do then? One thing's for sure, we need a new Government.

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