PA Unity Government
Negotiations over many months between Pres. Abbas of Fatah and PM Haniyeh of Hamas have finally resulted in agreement to form a Unity Government. Superficially the outcome is positive in that now the split in the PA is less likely to result in a civil war, and more likely to result in continued negotiations with Israel.
While Abbas will strut before the cameras as if he is in charge, in reality the Unity Government is a front, a facade behind which Hamas will continue to wield the power and determine the outcome. Haniyeh will reman PM, and only seven of the Ministers will be from other parties. Haniyeh's office issued a statement that said that while the Unity Government can talk peace with Israel, that is really the job of the PLO, and even if a peace agreement is reached, that does not mean that Hamas will recognize Israel's right to exist or stop the armed struggle. In other words, one part of the Government can negotiate peace with Israel, while another part, including the PM, will not accept it. Does this make any sense?
The international community set three conditions for Hamas to be recognized as a legitimate government of the PA, not only recognizing Israel's right to exist, but also stopping the use of terrorism/violence and accepting previous agreements made by the PA. None of these conditions have been met by the formation of the Unity Government, even if Fatah claims to have satisfied them, and so the Unity Government cannot qualify for international recognition or payments. Nevertheless, the EU, has immediately announced that it will recognize the Unity Government, and will drop the economic boycott that it was enforcing against the Hamas Government. It is to be hoped that at least the US will not be taken in by this flimsy attempt at international flim-flam.
A more charitable, optimistic, and leftist interpretation is that at least Israel can negotiate with Pres. Abbas, that maybe a long-term ceasefire (hudna) will be agreed, and that during this period the Unity Govt. will result in a period of peaceful coesistence, with no terrorism, that will eventually lead to peace. It's a nice story if you want to believe it.
Meanwhile the Israeli Govt. is not so stable. Last night after a 12 hour session the Cabinet voted by 19-4 to accept the Budget drafted by the Finance Minister. Amir Peretz was in a bind, as Defense Minister he should have voted for the increased funding of his Ministry, but as Head of the Labor Party he should have voted against the budget because it dropped most of the social expenditures he committed himself to. So like a good politician he abstained. But, most of his Party colleagues voted for the budget, showing a split in the Labor Party in which the members did not follow their leader. Also, the Shas Party members of the Coalition boycotted the vote altogether. This leaves the Government in a weak position going forward to the Finance Committee and the Knesset votes on the Budget. If it is rejected at any stage it could lead to the downfall of the Government.
After the partial failure of the war in Lebanon and its eventual consequences, and the current budget struggle, and Gilad Shalit still being held by a Hamas group, Israel will not be negotiating with the PA Unity Government from a position of strength.
While Abbas will strut before the cameras as if he is in charge, in reality the Unity Government is a front, a facade behind which Hamas will continue to wield the power and determine the outcome. Haniyeh will reman PM, and only seven of the Ministers will be from other parties. Haniyeh's office issued a statement that said that while the Unity Government can talk peace with Israel, that is really the job of the PLO, and even if a peace agreement is reached, that does not mean that Hamas will recognize Israel's right to exist or stop the armed struggle. In other words, one part of the Government can negotiate peace with Israel, while another part, including the PM, will not accept it. Does this make any sense?
The international community set three conditions for Hamas to be recognized as a legitimate government of the PA, not only recognizing Israel's right to exist, but also stopping the use of terrorism/violence and accepting previous agreements made by the PA. None of these conditions have been met by the formation of the Unity Government, even if Fatah claims to have satisfied them, and so the Unity Government cannot qualify for international recognition or payments. Nevertheless, the EU, has immediately announced that it will recognize the Unity Government, and will drop the economic boycott that it was enforcing against the Hamas Government. It is to be hoped that at least the US will not be taken in by this flimsy attempt at international flim-flam.
A more charitable, optimistic, and leftist interpretation is that at least Israel can negotiate with Pres. Abbas, that maybe a long-term ceasefire (hudna) will be agreed, and that during this period the Unity Govt. will result in a period of peaceful coesistence, with no terrorism, that will eventually lead to peace. It's a nice story if you want to believe it.
Meanwhile the Israeli Govt. is not so stable. Last night after a 12 hour session the Cabinet voted by 19-4 to accept the Budget drafted by the Finance Minister. Amir Peretz was in a bind, as Defense Minister he should have voted for the increased funding of his Ministry, but as Head of the Labor Party he should have voted against the budget because it dropped most of the social expenditures he committed himself to. So like a good politician he abstained. But, most of his Party colleagues voted for the budget, showing a split in the Labor Party in which the members did not follow their leader. Also, the Shas Party members of the Coalition boycotted the vote altogether. This leaves the Government in a weak position going forward to the Finance Committee and the Knesset votes on the Budget. If it is rejected at any stage it could lead to the downfall of the Government.
After the partial failure of the war in Lebanon and its eventual consequences, and the current budget struggle, and Gilad Shalit still being held by a Hamas group, Israel will not be negotiating with the PA Unity Government from a position of strength.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:54 PM
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