The positive side

This evening we went to an excellent talk at the AACI given by Gil Hoffman, the political reporter of the Jerusalem Post. He is originally from Chicago, although his parents lived in Israel. He spoke very well and amusingly, and because so many of us have been drawn into a pessimistic view of Israel's situation of late, he decided to focus on the positive side. He listed several reasons for being confident about Israel's future. So for those who found my recent article on the "next war scenario" disturbing, here is an antidote:
Many people are positive about Israel, including Warren Buffet, who made his first investment outside the US in Israel, and Donald Trump who is investing in Israel (and in Netanya). Also, the British astrophysicist Stephen Hawking is visiting Israel right now and has been extremely complimentary about the scientists and the students he has met. So our economy and our science are very good.
Even though the Iranian threat is the most serious, he mentioned that in a talk he gave to a visiting group from the US he was asked a few weeks ago, just before Olmert met Bush in Washington, what he expected would come out of it regarding Iran. His answer was that if Olmert said a lot about Iran that would mean nothing had been achieved, but if he said nothing about Iran that would mean that serious discussions had taken place. After the meeting Olmert said a lot about the Palestinians, but nothing about Iran. It turned out that Olmert and Bush met privately for 45 mins to discuss Iran, without any aides present! This is very unusual (Bush usually needs someone to tell him what to say), so the conclusion is that the US and Israel have agreed about what to do with Iran should the contingency arise.
Bush is a "lame duck" President and so has a more or less free hand to deal with Iran without being worried about his re-election. Also, he is concerned about his place in history, and so far Iraq is not his shining moment. Maybe if he saves the free world from the Iranian bomb he will recoup his losses.
According to recent reports Iran has run into trouble with the enrichment of uranium isotopes. They need another 60,000 centrifuges, and this is no mean requirement, it might indicate that they cannot achieve the optimistic view of developing a nuclear weapon within two years.
The Iranian parliament just voted to shorten Pres. Ahmedinejad's term in office by 1.5 years. This is primarily because of criticism on domestic issues. Many Iranians voted for him because he was an effective mayor of Tehran. But, he has focussed more on foreign affairs (the bomb, the Holocaust) and not putting bread on their plates. Many people are dissillusioned with him (according to reports from recent objective visitors) and so he will be out of office in 2.5 years! However, he may be replaced by someone worse, one doesn't know.
The Democrats want to win big in the next election in 2 years, and don't want to be left with the Iraq war and the Iranian crisis to deal with, so they will cooperate with Bush in the next two years to resolve the situation to Americans' satisfaction in order to start with a clean slate.
Israel defined three conditions for acceptance of the PA Hamas Government, recognition of Israel, stopping terrorist violence and accepting all previous PA-Israel agreements. Surprisingly almost the whole world has continued to go along with this Israeli policy for a year without backsliding. Even the EU has found a way to keep the agreement by paying funds only thru Abbas's office. This is unusual support for Israel's position, that has in fact almost brought the PA Government to its knees.
The Palestinains are on the verge of a civil war. As Abba Eban said "they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Several weeks ago it looked as if Hamas and Fatah might make a deal on a Unity Government, but now that Haniyeh has gone to Iran and stated categorically (for the benefit of his Iranian hosts) that Hamas will never recognize Israel, this pulls the carpet out from under Abbas. So he is likely in a few days to announce new elections. Hamas have said that they would consider this a coup attempt by Fatah, and the hostilities already under way may expanded. Yesterday an attempt was made to assassinate the Hamas Min. of Interior Said Siam. In any case, if there are elections in the PA, whoever wins, the situation will likely deteriorate.
Kofi Annan is retiring as UN Secty General. He will hardly be missed by the US and Israel. On his watch both N. Korea and Iran are in the process of developing nuclear weapons. He will be replaced by the former S. Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon, who has great experience in dealing with nuclear proliferation and is considered to be a serious and dependable candidate. Whether or not this will affect the UN's relationship with Israel remains to be seen.
Gil also responded to questions; about Syria he said that if Bashir Assad really wants to have negotiations with Israel as has been suggested, then he knows what to do, expel Khaled Mashaal and the horde of terrorists living in Damascus. He hasn't done this and so is not serious. Also, he is busy trying to recoup his position in Lebanon, by trying to use Hizbollah to bring down the Lebanese Government. This has not made him popular with the US or the EU. Gil almost dismissed the "Iraq Study Group Report," he said it bore little resemblance to reality on the ground and was already being ignored by Olmert and Bush. He did not think that Israel need worry about the implication in the Report that Israel should give up the Golan to Syria, it just won't happen.
Overall Gil Hofmann gave an affirmative rendition of Israel's predicament.