The first Quartet
To those who believe in the so-called "peace process" as a real entity, something tangible and providing hope for the future, then the upcoming meeting on Monday at Sharm-al-Sheikh in Egypt between that other Quartet - Israel, Egypt, Jordan and the PA, has been a long time coming. These are after all the four major parties to the Arab-Israel conflict, and if they can sit down and reason together, then maybe peace is actually possible.
But, there are some major flies in the ointment or possible hitches that can spoil this simplistic viewpoint.
First, the takeover of Gaza by Hamas represents a victory for the implacable enemies of all four members of this Quartet. Hamas is the Palestinian offshoot of the Moslem Brotherhood of Egypt that has been the religious fundamentalist enemy of the "moderate" Sunni regimes since it was founded in the 1940s. Both Egypt and Syria have fought civil wars against the Brotherhood, and Pres. Sadat of Egypt was assassinated by their followers after he made peace with Israel.
Further, the second in command of al Qaeda, Ayman al Zawahiri, is an Egyptian who was a follower of the Brotherhood until he founded al Qaeda with Osama bin Laden during the war in Afghanistan. As they have shown in direct attacks, the Hamas/al Qaeda extremists are committed to overthrowing the Hashemite regime in Jordan, the Mubarak regime in Egypt, and the Fatah and the Zionist regimes in Palestine. What they would replace them with would be the beginnings of a new Caliphate modelled on the 9th century Muslim Caliphate, only this time they plan to include the West in their empire.
Another entity conspicuous by its absence at the meeting will be Iran. Iran is after all pulling the strings and financing the activities of the anti-Zionist, anti-Western organizations, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. So in a way the meeting in Sharm is a "war cabinet" meeting of the four who are threatened by the Iranian-Moslem Brotherhood axis.
But, these two entities make strange bedfellows since the Brotherhood and its offshoots, Hamas and al Qaeda, are Sunni extremists, while Iran and its offshoot Hizbollah, are Shia extremists. They are sworn enemies of each other who have only made common cause because of their greater sworn enemies, Israel and the West, and they see Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia as fatally flawed pro-Western regimes. In fact, their interpretation of the meeting in Sharm is that this proves that Jordan, Egypt and the PA/West Bank under Pres. Abbas are puppets of the Americans.
This is where the greatest danger lies for Israel and for PM Olmert. The Arabs recognize that Olmert is one of the weakest PMs in Israeli history. After the drubbing in the Second Lebanon War, the IDF no longer has the same degree of deterrence for these Arabs that it once had. So there is a possibility that to show that they are not merely American or Israeli puppets, the three Arab leaders, Mubarak, Abdullah II and Abbas, will try to outnumber and outmaneuver Olmert in order to bring back to their peoples some tangible Israeli concessions.
What can Olmert give them that will satisfy their cravings. The first thing is that he will have to agree to is to support Pres. Abbas in all ways possible, including releasing the tax monies (m$600), releasing Arab prisoners, particularly releasing Marwan Barghouti (who might become the number two in Fatah), stopping development of the Security Fence, etc. Now, it is very unlikely that Olmert will agree to anything except the first item on this laundry list, although, even in the Cabinet Avigdor Lieberman opposes giving these funds to Abbas. But secret agreements might be made, if the four leaders who have common cause agree to cooperate to bring down the Hamas regime in Gaza. However, the practicality of this is very unlikely at present. Hamas are consolidating their military control in Gaza, and the Israeli public will not support a move by Olmert to attack and take over Gaza if Israelis will die to put Abbas back on that throne.
Finally, Abbas has shown himself to be incompetent and weak time after time when he could have faced down Hamas with superior forces. Now in Ramallah they are investigating why Fatah failed to make any stand against Hamas in Gaza, and all that can be said is that the Fatah forces took their cue from Abbas. Even the so-called Fatah strong-man Mohammed Dahlan proved to be a wet squib and escaped to Ramallah. So rather than trying to take back Gaza for Fatah, Israel should be concerned first of all to prevent Fatah being overtaken a second time by Hamas on the West Bank.
The four players in this deadly game will be first and foremost concerned to bolster the Abbas regime in the West Bank and then let's see where that takes us.
But, there are some major flies in the ointment or possible hitches that can spoil this simplistic viewpoint.
First, the takeover of Gaza by Hamas represents a victory for the implacable enemies of all four members of this Quartet. Hamas is the Palestinian offshoot of the Moslem Brotherhood of Egypt that has been the religious fundamentalist enemy of the "moderate" Sunni regimes since it was founded in the 1940s. Both Egypt and Syria have fought civil wars against the Brotherhood, and Pres. Sadat of Egypt was assassinated by their followers after he made peace with Israel.
Further, the second in command of al Qaeda, Ayman al Zawahiri, is an Egyptian who was a follower of the Brotherhood until he founded al Qaeda with Osama bin Laden during the war in Afghanistan. As they have shown in direct attacks, the Hamas/al Qaeda extremists are committed to overthrowing the Hashemite regime in Jordan, the Mubarak regime in Egypt, and the Fatah and the Zionist regimes in Palestine. What they would replace them with would be the beginnings of a new Caliphate modelled on the 9th century Muslim Caliphate, only this time they plan to include the West in their empire.
Another entity conspicuous by its absence at the meeting will be Iran. Iran is after all pulling the strings and financing the activities of the anti-Zionist, anti-Western organizations, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. So in a way the meeting in Sharm is a "war cabinet" meeting of the four who are threatened by the Iranian-Moslem Brotherhood axis.
But, these two entities make strange bedfellows since the Brotherhood and its offshoots, Hamas and al Qaeda, are Sunni extremists, while Iran and its offshoot Hizbollah, are Shia extremists. They are sworn enemies of each other who have only made common cause because of their greater sworn enemies, Israel and the West, and they see Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia as fatally flawed pro-Western regimes. In fact, their interpretation of the meeting in Sharm is that this proves that Jordan, Egypt and the PA/West Bank under Pres. Abbas are puppets of the Americans.
This is where the greatest danger lies for Israel and for PM Olmert. The Arabs recognize that Olmert is one of the weakest PMs in Israeli history. After the drubbing in the Second Lebanon War, the IDF no longer has the same degree of deterrence for these Arabs that it once had. So there is a possibility that to show that they are not merely American or Israeli puppets, the three Arab leaders, Mubarak, Abdullah II and Abbas, will try to outnumber and outmaneuver Olmert in order to bring back to their peoples some tangible Israeli concessions.
What can Olmert give them that will satisfy their cravings. The first thing is that he will have to agree to is to support Pres. Abbas in all ways possible, including releasing the tax monies (m$600), releasing Arab prisoners, particularly releasing Marwan Barghouti (who might become the number two in Fatah), stopping development of the Security Fence, etc. Now, it is very unlikely that Olmert will agree to anything except the first item on this laundry list, although, even in the Cabinet Avigdor Lieberman opposes giving these funds to Abbas. But secret agreements might be made, if the four leaders who have common cause agree to cooperate to bring down the Hamas regime in Gaza. However, the practicality of this is very unlikely at present. Hamas are consolidating their military control in Gaza, and the Israeli public will not support a move by Olmert to attack and take over Gaza if Israelis will die to put Abbas back on that throne.
Finally, Abbas has shown himself to be incompetent and weak time after time when he could have faced down Hamas with superior forces. Now in Ramallah they are investigating why Fatah failed to make any stand against Hamas in Gaza, and all that can be said is that the Fatah forces took their cue from Abbas. Even the so-called Fatah strong-man Mohammed Dahlan proved to be a wet squib and escaped to Ramallah. So rather than trying to take back Gaza for Fatah, Israel should be concerned first of all to prevent Fatah being overtaken a second time by Hamas on the West Bank.
The four players in this deadly game will be first and foremost concerned to bolster the Abbas regime in the West Bank and then let's see where that takes us.
posted by Jack Cohen at 11:35 AM
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