David Horowitz talks

David Horowitz is the Managing Editor of the Jerusalem Post. He is from London, and took a course in journalism in Cardiff before moving to Israel and working at the Post. On Wednesday he came to talk at our synagogue, and gave an excellent summary of the current situation.
He finds Israelis are more relaxed than they were and he attributes this to the reduction in terrorism (ca. 95%) due to the building of the Security Fence and the checkpoints. He cannot understand the opposition to the Fence by those who support human rights, since the greatest human right is the right to life, and the fence has statistically saved ca. 2,000 Israeli lives. Certainly it does inconvenience some Palestinians, but not as much as expected, since the Israeli Supreme Court has heard many cases disputing the route of the Fence, and has forced the Govt. to change the route many times, hence the delay in its construction. The idea that the Fence was built as a "land grab" by Israel is nonsense, because whereas the original route included some 17% of the West Bank, the final route now includes only 7%.
Nevertheless, Israelis are also generally in a malaise about the current internal political situation. This is partly attributable to the many scandals, sexual and financial, that have plagued the current Government, from the President to the PM and on down. PM Olmert has essentially no public support, in polls he gets from 0-3%, within the margin of error. This is a result of the perceived failure of the Govt. to prosecute last year's war in Lebanon and the harsh criticism of the Govt. and the PM by the Winograd Committee interim Report for their failures to consider alternative approaches during the war.
He criticized FM Limor Livnat, who as Mrs. clean in the Cabinet, after the publication of the Report could have forced Olmert to resign, but instead in her press conference said that she had "advised" Olmert to resign, but would continue as FM if he chose not to. So she enabled Olmert to get off scott free. In failing to press her advantage she damaged her credibility and probably committed political suicide.
David said that the Israeli public is currently "wooable" since they have lost confidence in the traditional parties, Labor for choosing a failure like Amir Peretz, and Likud because its leader Sharon bolted it and formed Kadima. But now Kadima has no credibility, so the public can be attracted by any alternative, that's why the Pensioner's Party came from nowhere to win 7 seats in the last election. The younger voters felt that their grandfathers must be better than any known politicians.
He thinks that Israel has gone through a cycle, starting with Netanyahu as PM, when the policy was "hang tough" in face of the Arab's rejection. Since that didn't produce any positive results, Ehud Barak was elected PM in 2000 with the idea that since the Arabs won't deal, we'll do our thing unilaterally. But, the hasty withdrawal from Lebanon and the subsequent "disengagement" from Gaza, only lead to greater Arab hostility, from Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Now that approach has been discredited we are about to revert to the beginning of the cycle again, "hang tough" with Netanyahu.
There are good reasons for this change in Israeli attitudes, since the lack of Israeli readiness and effectiveness exhibited in the Second Lebanon War has reduced the IDF's deterrent capability, and has therefore emboldened our enemies. Whereas many Arabs had come to the conclusion that we were here to stay, the new situation has somewhat degraded that concept. They once again harbor dreams of defeating us. This is especially true of the Islamist camp including Iran, Hizbollah, Syria and Hamas.
While Syria is giving out contradictory signs of peace and war, it is clear that there is no possibility of compromise with Iran and the others. In this situation Mahmud Abbas in the West Bank seems like a moderate. But, we must be very careful for two reasons, first many factions within Fatah are outright terrorist organizations, such as the al Aksa Martyr's Brigades, over which Abbas has little control, and second Abbas has proven himself time and time again to be indecisive and weak. No Israeli Govt. can trust him.
The visit of the Arab League representatives, Egypt and Jordan, coming soon, should not be seen as a great breakthrough, since the Arab League, although more conciliatory perhaps due to the potential threat of Iran, is still viciously anti-Israel. They would love to weaken Israel by persuading a weak Israeli Govt. to accept some attractive compromise (such as the right of return for refugees or further withdrawals) to strengthen Abbas, only to find that we can never recover from this concession.
Iran is not like Iraq was in regard to its nuclear capability. Iraq had one facility when Begin attacked it, which was not heavily defended and Iraq had no ability to recover from that attack. Iran has many nucelar facilities, they are heavily defended and they have the capability not only to recover from an attack but to counter-attack with missiles. So most Israeli policy makers would prefer to see Iran change its policies due to sanctions and/or internal upheavals. But, failing that, it is not sure that an Israeli strike against nuclear targets in Iran would be a successful strategy.
Finally, since he has seen what Israel has gone through historically, and knowing the resilience of Israelis, one must be positive and enthusiastic that somehow or other Israel will find a way through this latest threat to our existence.