NIE on Iran
The new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) issued by the CIA on the Iranian nuclear program is itself a bombshell. The conclusion that Iran stopped its program for nuclear weapons development in 2003, and has not renewed it, although is could at any time, has completely confused the international situation.
Instead of a good case for the adoption of a third round of sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council, the US is now on the back foot, and Russian FM Ivanov issued a statement saying that now such sanctions cannot be justified. Pres. Ahmedinejad himself declared a victory for Iran, and said that the NIE showed that he had been telling the truth all along, and that Iran has the right to continue to develop its energy-related nuclear program.
The problem for Israel is that its national security agency, the Shin Bet, has given a much more negative assessment of Iranian programs and activities. So that now there is doubt about who is right. Since the CIA has been so very wrong in the past, for example over Saddam Hussein's WMD and nuclear program (there was none), it is difficult to know how much credibility to give it now. Also, Pres. Bush stated that the NIE does not indicate that he should change US policy towards Iran and its nuclear programs, in other words the assessment is so ambiguous, since Iran could restart the program again at any time, and may have done so already, that no clear-cut assessment can be made.
Under these circumstances any Israeli Government must err on the side of caution. They must assume that since Iran is pressing ahead with its nuclear energy program against international sanctions (because there is no IAEA oversight) and because it could start, or have already restarted, its nuclear weapons program any time, and because of the aggressiveness of the Iranian Govt. (that has warned of "wiping Israel off the map" many times), then there exists a definite possibility that Iran could make a surprise nuclear attack on Israel. In order to counter this, the diplomatic approach is the first priority, but a military first strike cannot still be ruled out. However, it makes Israel's case more difficult if the US no longer supports the contention that Iran has developed or is developing the nuclear weapons capability that it maintained it once was.
Instead of a good case for the adoption of a third round of sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council, the US is now on the back foot, and Russian FM Ivanov issued a statement saying that now such sanctions cannot be justified. Pres. Ahmedinejad himself declared a victory for Iran, and said that the NIE showed that he had been telling the truth all along, and that Iran has the right to continue to develop its energy-related nuclear program.
The problem for Israel is that its national security agency, the Shin Bet, has given a much more negative assessment of Iranian programs and activities. So that now there is doubt about who is right. Since the CIA has been so very wrong in the past, for example over Saddam Hussein's WMD and nuclear program (there was none), it is difficult to know how much credibility to give it now. Also, Pres. Bush stated that the NIE does not indicate that he should change US policy towards Iran and its nuclear programs, in other words the assessment is so ambiguous, since Iran could restart the program again at any time, and may have done so already, that no clear-cut assessment can be made.
Under these circumstances any Israeli Government must err on the side of caution. They must assume that since Iran is pressing ahead with its nuclear energy program against international sanctions (because there is no IAEA oversight) and because it could start, or have already restarted, its nuclear weapons program any time, and because of the aggressiveness of the Iranian Govt. (that has warned of "wiping Israel off the map" many times), then there exists a definite possibility that Iran could make a surprise nuclear attack on Israel. In order to counter this, the diplomatic approach is the first priority, but a military first strike cannot still be ruled out. However, it makes Israel's case more difficult if the US no longer supports the contention that Iran has developed or is developing the nuclear weapons capability that it maintained it once was.
posted by Jack Cohen at 6:32 PM
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