Annapolis intifada?
If the Annapolis Conference is not a success we have been warned of a new intifada!
If the Annapolis Conference is a success then we have been warned of a new intifada!
It seems that nothing we do can avoid the threat of a new intifada, damned if we do and damned if we don't!
But, this is the way the Arabs always negotiate, with a threat hanging over our heads.
The mere fact that in Annapolis the US has managed to gather together almost all the Arab States, mostly represented at the FM level, is already considered a success. After all, when ever before in history have Saudi Arabian and Israel representatives been together in the same hall to talk about Middle East peace.
But, the problem is that this is largely symbolic. In fact, not only do the Saudis refuse to shake the hands of the Israelis, they insist on sitting at separate tables, and using different doors! If this isn't a form of racism, what is? And we are supposed to be happy with this situation.
The concepts of peace of the two sides are extremely different, and there is little chance of any success. Many years ago Yehoshafat Harkabi, former Head of Israeli intelligence, said that the conflict can only be resolved (not solved) when there is sufficient overlap in the two opposing positions. But, if there is no real committment to peace on the other side then how can any agreement possibly work. You cannot have a reliable working agreement with only a part of the other side. There is Hamas in Gaza, controlling one third of the Palestinian people that totally rejects any agreement at Annapolis, within Fatah probably the militants/terrorists reject any concessions to Israel (on refugees, Jerusalem, etc.) and if we make concessions from our side (possibly under pressure from the US, EU, etc.) then they will simply accept them and start the attacks again.
Of course, missing from all of this is Iran. Even if the Syrians do appear, the Iranian threat is on everyone's mind. In fact that's the main reason why the Saudis and the majority of Sunni States are there. When Hamas forces fired on Fatah crowds in Gaza last week, killing 7, the crowd shouted at them "Shia, Shia." In other words they see Iran's hand in everything that Hamas (and Hizbollah) does, and no doubt so do the Saudis. But, in order to placate the Saudis and their cohorts, should Israel be expected to commit suicide. On the contrary, a strong Israel is the only guarantee that Iran will not become too strong and attempt to dominate the Sunni Arabs.
Just as when we pulled out of Gaza, expecting some kind of positive response at least, what did we get -rockets and more rockets, still being fired today! And if we pull out of any area in the West Bank or Jerusalem, then it is as if we are inviting more rockets and a truly impossible situation as they rain down on our population in our main densely populated cities. This would be intolerable and would only lead to more war. We cannot take this risk.
Absent a completely unified, peace-committed Palestinian entity (dream on), there can be no peace agreement with the weak and incompetent Abbas. He cannot make peace and he cannot guarantee peace. So no agreement with him is worth more than the paper it is written on. But, the risk of dividing Jerusalem and giving autonomy to a terrorist state is far more dangerous than the risk of the threatened intifada. And in fact there is less likelihood of this than after the failed Camp David talks in 1999, since as far as we know Abbas has not now organized an intifada in advance, as Arafat had done then.
They says don't worry, no agreement is going to be signed at Annapolis, so what are they meeting there for? Amid the smiles and the handshakes, positions are being staked out, and as the "victim" in all of this we should fear for our lives! So I'm not against the meeting at Annapolis, or against gathering together to meet, or even against smiles and handshakes. But, lets beware of a no-win situation for Israel.
If the Annapolis Conference is a success then we have been warned of a new intifada!
It seems that nothing we do can avoid the threat of a new intifada, damned if we do and damned if we don't!
But, this is the way the Arabs always negotiate, with a threat hanging over our heads.
The mere fact that in Annapolis the US has managed to gather together almost all the Arab States, mostly represented at the FM level, is already considered a success. After all, when ever before in history have Saudi Arabian and Israel representatives been together in the same hall to talk about Middle East peace.
But, the problem is that this is largely symbolic. In fact, not only do the Saudis refuse to shake the hands of the Israelis, they insist on sitting at separate tables, and using different doors! If this isn't a form of racism, what is? And we are supposed to be happy with this situation.
The concepts of peace of the two sides are extremely different, and there is little chance of any success. Many years ago Yehoshafat Harkabi, former Head of Israeli intelligence, said that the conflict can only be resolved (not solved) when there is sufficient overlap in the two opposing positions. But, if there is no real committment to peace on the other side then how can any agreement possibly work. You cannot have a reliable working agreement with only a part of the other side. There is Hamas in Gaza, controlling one third of the Palestinian people that totally rejects any agreement at Annapolis, within Fatah probably the militants/terrorists reject any concessions to Israel (on refugees, Jerusalem, etc.) and if we make concessions from our side (possibly under pressure from the US, EU, etc.) then they will simply accept them and start the attacks again.
Of course, missing from all of this is Iran. Even if the Syrians do appear, the Iranian threat is on everyone's mind. In fact that's the main reason why the Saudis and the majority of Sunni States are there. When Hamas forces fired on Fatah crowds in Gaza last week, killing 7, the crowd shouted at them "Shia, Shia." In other words they see Iran's hand in everything that Hamas (and Hizbollah) does, and no doubt so do the Saudis. But, in order to placate the Saudis and their cohorts, should Israel be expected to commit suicide. On the contrary, a strong Israel is the only guarantee that Iran will not become too strong and attempt to dominate the Sunni Arabs.
Just as when we pulled out of Gaza, expecting some kind of positive response at least, what did we get -rockets and more rockets, still being fired today! And if we pull out of any area in the West Bank or Jerusalem, then it is as if we are inviting more rockets and a truly impossible situation as they rain down on our population in our main densely populated cities. This would be intolerable and would only lead to more war. We cannot take this risk.
Absent a completely unified, peace-committed Palestinian entity (dream on), there can be no peace agreement with the weak and incompetent Abbas. He cannot make peace and he cannot guarantee peace. So no agreement with him is worth more than the paper it is written on. But, the risk of dividing Jerusalem and giving autonomy to a terrorist state is far more dangerous than the risk of the threatened intifada. And in fact there is less likelihood of this than after the failed Camp David talks in 1999, since as far as we know Abbas has not now organized an intifada in advance, as Arafat had done then.
They says don't worry, no agreement is going to be signed at Annapolis, so what are they meeting there for? Amid the smiles and the handshakes, positions are being staked out, and as the "victim" in all of this we should fear for our lives! So I'm not against the meeting at Annapolis, or against gathering together to meet, or even against smiles and handshakes. But, lets beware of a no-win situation for Israel.
posted by Jack Cohen at 2:02 PM
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