Protracted struggle?
Last Monday, on the third anniversary of the death of Yasir Arafat (remember him?), there was a major clash between Hamas and Fatah in Gaza. This occured while Pres. Abbas ceremoniously opened a white mausoleum in memory of Arafat in the Mukata compound in Ramallah on the West Bank. There was a simultaneous rally in Gaza, that attracted a huge crowd estimated at 120,000. This was taken to indicate that Fatah still has major popular support in Gaza.
However, clashes broke out between the two factions and 7 Fatah supporters were killed and many wounded when Hamas Executive guards fired on them. This was seen as a desecration of Arafat's memory by Fatah, and embittered the relationship between them. When asked whether or not Israel or Hamas was the greater enemy, followers of Fatah replied that Hamas was first, but, they still regard Israel as a great enemy. So "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" adage does not apply.
Meanwhile, as preparations proceed for the imminent Annapolis Meeting (downgraded from a Conference), Abbas is increasingly seen as weak and indecisive. He is really only the President of the Mukata in Ramallah. The military wing of Fatah, the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, acts essentially independently of him and his cronies. Abbas set up a police unit 300 strong in Nablus to extend his control, but all they control is the traffic, and that only during the day. At night they officially retire and the IDF takes over security.
Also, in Gaza, as the going gets tough, Hamas has split into three distinct groups, that which supports Khaled Mashaal in Damascus, followers of PM Ismail Haniyeh, and a splinter group supporting former FM Mahmud al-Zahar. There have already been clashes between these three groups, but this has been kept quiet to give the appearance of Hamas unity. The already planned major IDF incursion into Gaza to stop the rocketing of Israeli territory may not take place, and certainly not before the Annapolis Meeting. Hamas want the IDF to attack to enhance their image as the front-line against Israel, and to unify all factions.
However, if Israel reduced or stopped supplies of gasoline, electricity, water and food, they could bring Hamas to its knees in a short time and even exacerbate the clashes between the various groups. The Israeli Supreme Court and the Attorney General have both ruled that since Gaza is officially a "hostile entity" Israel can reduce these supplies as long as no humanitarian crisis occurs. It is unlikely that the Government will order water and food supplies reduced, but gasoline and electricity may well be cut. It must be unique in history that one side in a war supplies all essential supplies to the other side while being attacked by it! This must stop and Gaza must either generate its own electricity or import gasoline from elsewhere (e.g. Egypt!).
Since Abbas is afraid to appear too concilatory towards Israel and the US, he is trying to find a way of scuppering PA cooperation at Annapolis. One way is the current insistence that the PA cannot recognise Israel as a Jewish State. This even though the PA supposedly already recognized Israel and also has Islam as its established religion. This stand of Abbas is clearly designed to "get him off the hook." The chances of Annapolis being successful in bringing the parties together to enhance the "peace process" seem minimal. Post-Annapolis we may see a concerted effort of Hamas to take over from Abbas in the West Bank, and of Fatah to try to wrest Gaza from Hamas, and a protracted struggle may then occur.
However, clashes broke out between the two factions and 7 Fatah supporters were killed and many wounded when Hamas Executive guards fired on them. This was seen as a desecration of Arafat's memory by Fatah, and embittered the relationship between them. When asked whether or not Israel or Hamas was the greater enemy, followers of Fatah replied that Hamas was first, but, they still regard Israel as a great enemy. So "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" adage does not apply.
Meanwhile, as preparations proceed for the imminent Annapolis Meeting (downgraded from a Conference), Abbas is increasingly seen as weak and indecisive. He is really only the President of the Mukata in Ramallah. The military wing of Fatah, the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, acts essentially independently of him and his cronies. Abbas set up a police unit 300 strong in Nablus to extend his control, but all they control is the traffic, and that only during the day. At night they officially retire and the IDF takes over security.
Also, in Gaza, as the going gets tough, Hamas has split into three distinct groups, that which supports Khaled Mashaal in Damascus, followers of PM Ismail Haniyeh, and a splinter group supporting former FM Mahmud al-Zahar. There have already been clashes between these three groups, but this has been kept quiet to give the appearance of Hamas unity. The already planned major IDF incursion into Gaza to stop the rocketing of Israeli territory may not take place, and certainly not before the Annapolis Meeting. Hamas want the IDF to attack to enhance their image as the front-line against Israel, and to unify all factions.
However, if Israel reduced or stopped supplies of gasoline, electricity, water and food, they could bring Hamas to its knees in a short time and even exacerbate the clashes between the various groups. The Israeli Supreme Court and the Attorney General have both ruled that since Gaza is officially a "hostile entity" Israel can reduce these supplies as long as no humanitarian crisis occurs. It is unlikely that the Government will order water and food supplies reduced, but gasoline and electricity may well be cut. It must be unique in history that one side in a war supplies all essential supplies to the other side while being attacked by it! This must stop and Gaza must either generate its own electricity or import gasoline from elsewhere (e.g. Egypt!).
Since Abbas is afraid to appear too concilatory towards Israel and the US, he is trying to find a way of scuppering PA cooperation at Annapolis. One way is the current insistence that the PA cannot recognise Israel as a Jewish State. This even though the PA supposedly already recognized Israel and also has Islam as its established religion. This stand of Abbas is clearly designed to "get him off the hook." The chances of Annapolis being successful in bringing the parties together to enhance the "peace process" seem minimal. Post-Annapolis we may see a concerted effort of Hamas to take over from Abbas in the West Bank, and of Fatah to try to wrest Gaza from Hamas, and a protracted struggle may then occur.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:29 PM
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