Coalition crisis
Israeli politics are especially byzantine at this juncture, with the so-called Annapolis talks underway between Israel and the PA and with the Winograd Committee Report expected to be issued next week.
PM Olmert definitely does not want to resign, but his Coalition could fall apart if one of the Coalition partners withdraws their support for either of the above two reasons, either because they are against the PA negotiations or are shocked by the incompetence of Olmert as revealed in the Report. If they do so, there are several possible outcomes:
1. Yisrael Beitanu, the most right wing party in the Coalition (11 seats) may depart because the PA negotiations now include core issues such as Jerusalem, that they consider a red flag. In fact, its leader, Avigdor Lieberman, has arranged a press conference for Weds when it is thought he will announce this move. But, then Olmert would still have a slim majority (67 out of 120) in the Knesset.
2. The Labor Party under Defense Min. Barak could bolt the coalition mainly due to the Report findings. This would cause the downfall of the Coalition and lead to new elections. But, Barak is less likely to do this if Lieberman has already left the Coalition. Also, Barak doesn't think Labor is strong enough yet to challenge Kadima or Likud.
3. The Kadima Party could try to replace Olmert with another leader, possibly FM Tzippi Livni, and then try to maintain the coalition. This is very unlikely since Olmert would rather lose the Govt. than see it taken away from him by his own party which would mean the end of his career.
4. The Report findings are so damaging and public pressure is so intense that Olmert will be forced to resign and then elections must be held in about 3 months. This is very unlikely to happen, since everyone knows that Olmert is/was incompetent, but if he holds a majority he will cling to it like a drowning man.
5. United Torah Judaism is bribed to join the Coalition to replace some of the lost votes. Olmert bribed Shas to join by reestablishing the Ministry of Religious Affairs under their control, so it is quite conceivable that UTJ can likewise be bought.
If that happens and Labor does not leave, then this Kadima-led Coalition will be the sorriest, most opportunistic and incompetent Government Israel has ever had. A majority of Israelis hope that Olmert's Coalition will collapse and new elections will revert to the status quo ante.
PM Olmert definitely does not want to resign, but his Coalition could fall apart if one of the Coalition partners withdraws their support for either of the above two reasons, either because they are against the PA negotiations or are shocked by the incompetence of Olmert as revealed in the Report. If they do so, there are several possible outcomes:
1. Yisrael Beitanu, the most right wing party in the Coalition (11 seats) may depart because the PA negotiations now include core issues such as Jerusalem, that they consider a red flag. In fact, its leader, Avigdor Lieberman, has arranged a press conference for Weds when it is thought he will announce this move. But, then Olmert would still have a slim majority (67 out of 120) in the Knesset.
2. The Labor Party under Defense Min. Barak could bolt the coalition mainly due to the Report findings. This would cause the downfall of the Coalition and lead to new elections. But, Barak is less likely to do this if Lieberman has already left the Coalition. Also, Barak doesn't think Labor is strong enough yet to challenge Kadima or Likud.
3. The Kadima Party could try to replace Olmert with another leader, possibly FM Tzippi Livni, and then try to maintain the coalition. This is very unlikely since Olmert would rather lose the Govt. than see it taken away from him by his own party which would mean the end of his career.
4. The Report findings are so damaging and public pressure is so intense that Olmert will be forced to resign and then elections must be held in about 3 months. This is very unlikely to happen, since everyone knows that Olmert is/was incompetent, but if he holds a majority he will cling to it like a drowning man.
5. United Torah Judaism is bribed to join the Coalition to replace some of the lost votes. Olmert bribed Shas to join by reestablishing the Ministry of Religious Affairs under their control, so it is quite conceivable that UTJ can likewise be bought.
If that happens and Labor does not leave, then this Kadima-led Coalition will be the sorriest, most opportunistic and incompetent Government Israel has ever had. A majority of Israelis hope that Olmert's Coalition will collapse and new elections will revert to the status quo ante.
posted by Jack Cohen at 3:35 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home