Friday, January 04, 2008

Grad rocket

It finally happened, a longer range Grad 122 mm Katyusha rocket was fired from the Gaza strip, travelled 17.5 km, overshooting Ashkelon, and fell north of it. Luckily noone was wounded or killed. This is not the short range home-made Kassam rockets with a range of ca. 10-12 km that have been raining down so far on Sderot, but these rockets have a range of up to 25 km. Several terrorist organizations claimed credit for this attack, all of them with offices in Damascus. This attack no doubt represents the first attempt to derail the upcoming visit of Pres. Bush to Israel. This development represents a strategic change in the situation. It means that the Palestinians in Gaza can now reach major densely populated centers in Israel, notably the city of Ashkelon with a population of ca. 120,000, as well as its port and advanced industries.
In response, Israel launched raids into the Gaza Strip and killed 6 terrorists and two civilians. Most of these were killed by rockets fired from helicopters during a firefight between the IDF and terrorists in Khan Yunis that lasted most of Thursday night. One of the terrorists killed, Sami Hamden, was a leader of the Islamic Jihad rocket making organization. His house containing rockets and explosives was also destroyed in the attack. The presence of these rockets results from the fact that Egypt is smuggling across their border with Gaza, in contradiction to the signed agreement with Israel.
Israel views this development with grave concern. It's true that discussions and negotiations are going on with the PA leadership, Pres. Abbas and his followers. But, at the same time elements of Fatah, Hamas as well as Islamic Jihad in the West Bank are actively seeking to import these Grad rockets there. From the West Bank it is possible with a few of these rockets to bring Israel to a standstill, just as Hizbollah did in Northern Israel during the 2006 Second Lebanon War. This is not a new strategy, but one that Hamas and others have copied from Hizbollah, with financial and training support from Iran.
So just as we would be withdrawing from further areas of land as part of an Annapolis agreement, to placate the international community and the Saudis and their friends, the Palestinian terrorists will be gearing up to attack us with short and long range rockets, into Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, the Knesset and any other part of Israel they choose. And don't think it won't happen, this is precisely what happened in Lebanon, we withdrew and Hizbollah came right up to the border and shot rockets from there. And we withdrew from Gaza, and the terrorists moved in and daily fire rockets from where our settlements were. They were not only legitimate Jewish settlements, some having been on land bought by Jews in the 1930s and 40s, but they were defensive too. Take them away and as you see we are now fighting on Israeli soil. The defensive line moved inwards. As we give up territory they see this as a sign of weakness and increase their attacks. The only way to avoid this obvious and clear-cut trap is not to withdraw from any more territory until and unless all rocket attacks stop and all terrorism stops. Neither Abbas nor anyone else can currently guarantee this, so there is no point in making agreements with him, and certainly not implementing any agreements with him.
To make this kind of elementary mistake, as with the Oslo Accords, that brings the existence of the State of Israel into danger as well as all of its citizens, is stupid. To make this mistake twice, as with the "Disengagement," is unacceptable. To make this mistake three times (!) as with the current Annapolis negotiations, would be criminally negligent. Yet, that is precisely what PM Olmert is intending to do, based on an interview he gave to the Jerusalem Post this week. With a popularity rating of less than 10% he has no mandate to make these sweeping and dangerous concessions. Let us hope that at least any such agreement will be subject minimally to Knesset approval and preferably a national referendum, the best kind of which is a new national election. Grad rockets are serious enough to cause a change in our national strategy.

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