Thursday, February 21, 2008

Change?

Important changes are happening in the world. In Pakistan, an election for Parliament resulted in the defeat of Pres. Musharraf's party and in Cuba, Fidel Castro officially resigned as President.
The election results in Pakistan put the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of assassinated leader Benazir Bhutto in the lead, with the other opposition National Muslim Party (NMP) of Nawaz Sharif in second place. As a coalition they can certainly out-vote Musharraf's party that got only 33 seats. The Islamists did very poorly, but the combination of the PPP and NMP are not expected to be as pro-American as Musharraf has been. How this will impact on the presence of al Qaeda and other extremist groups in the north-western tribal region of Pakistan is uncertain. But, it is not likely to improve the situation.
Castro has passed over the helm of Cuba to his brother Raul. This is a strange feature of communist dictatorships, that they in effect become inherited monarchies, from revolution to reaction in one long step. Whether or not Raul, aged 76, will be any more flexible in relations with the West remains unknown. However, this swap after nearly 50 years at least presages change, so that Cuba may eventually be able to open up to the rest of the world.
Change in Israel is slow. Yesterday PM Olmert met with Pres. Abbas and both sides put their own spin on the situation. Abbas' spokesman Saeb Erakat said that all issues were being addressed, including Jerusalem, but Olmert's spokesman said that this was not so and that the issue of Jerusalem is being left until last. This is so that Shas won't bolt his coalition, at least not yet.
In Gaza there is no change in the situation, rockets keep raining down on Sderot and although then IDF goes into action and kills a few terrorists, it does not seem to affect the outcome. In Lebanon, there is stalemate, with no election of a President and with both sides practicing brinksmanship, that might lead to a new civil war.
In the US, the slogan "Change" apparently has a powerful appeal to a large proportion of the Democratic party membership, and this has allowed Barack Obama to overtake Hilary Clinton in the Presidential primaries. He has won the last 10 contests, but there are still Texas and Ohio to go, and either could win. Meanwhile McCain has all-but won the Republican primary and will likely be the Republican candidate for President. So it will be McCain vs. Obama or possibly Hilary. Old and experienced vs. new and inexperienced. Take your choice.

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