Egypt and Gaza
Egypt will never officially take control of Gaza. After the experience it had of Gaza between 1948-1967, when the Egyptians tried to control the Palestinians without notable success, they have left Israel holding the poisoned chalice, hoping that Israel will drink.
There is no possibility of a reconciliation between the Fatah and Hamas Parties, since each controls a part of the Palestinian homeland and will not give up control to the other. There is no way that Hamas, now controlling the border posts with Egypt will ever surrender control of them back to Fatah, and similarly there is no way that Fatah will accept the current situation. Therefore, there can be no compromise between them as ordered by the Egyptians. If that is the case, the Egyptians will have to take the step they have threatened of completely blocking the Egyptian-Gaza border, thereby becoming an accomplice of Israel in isolating Gaza. Egypt has very good reasons for doing this.
Although the Palestinian cause is very popular in Egypt and Hamas is considered a heroic organizatiion for continuing to bombard Israel, Mubarak will accept the unpopularity that will come with such a move. He cannot afford to have Hamas terrorists running around in Egypt, and particularly in Sinai where there are already Beduin terrorists and potential Israeli hostage victims. Also, the Muslim Brotherhood, the main anti-Western Islamist opposition to Mubarak, together with its daughter organization Hamas, might become too powerful for him to handle. The Egyptains have already arrested two groups comprising 15 men armed with guns and explosives leaving El Arish, and are seeking a further four more gunmen with plans to kill/kidnap Israeli tourists elsewhere in Sinai. This is of course only the beginning, the longer the border remains open the more terrorists will infiltrate Sinai and Egypt and the greater is the likelihood of incidents that will be bad both for Egypt and Israel.
Unfortunately, Israel did not take the opportunity of the open border with Egypt to completely blockade Gaza and put the onus on Egypt to supply electricity and food. Nevertheless this week the Israeli Supreme Court rejected appeals by two left-wing pro-Palestinain organizations, one Arab Israeli the other Jewish Israeli, and said that the reduction of supplies of energy and food to Gaza were justified under the laws of war. This allows the Government to proceed with its previously stated policies, if it wants to. Such a move, of reducing supplies to Gaza, may affect the Annapolis peace negotiations with Pres. Abbas, since he will want to show solidarity with the Palestinains in Gaza. But, he is unlikely to do anything drastic such as break off talks, since any such blockade will harm his main enemy, Hamas. However, today Hamas PM Haniyeh announced that Gaza wants in future to be dependent on Egypt and not on Israel. Strangely this coincides with Israeli policy, but certainly not with Egyptian policy.
There is no possibility of a reconciliation between the Fatah and Hamas Parties, since each controls a part of the Palestinian homeland and will not give up control to the other. There is no way that Hamas, now controlling the border posts with Egypt will ever surrender control of them back to Fatah, and similarly there is no way that Fatah will accept the current situation. Therefore, there can be no compromise between them as ordered by the Egyptians. If that is the case, the Egyptians will have to take the step they have threatened of completely blocking the Egyptian-Gaza border, thereby becoming an accomplice of Israel in isolating Gaza. Egypt has very good reasons for doing this.
Although the Palestinian cause is very popular in Egypt and Hamas is considered a heroic organizatiion for continuing to bombard Israel, Mubarak will accept the unpopularity that will come with such a move. He cannot afford to have Hamas terrorists running around in Egypt, and particularly in Sinai where there are already Beduin terrorists and potential Israeli hostage victims. Also, the Muslim Brotherhood, the main anti-Western Islamist opposition to Mubarak, together with its daughter organization Hamas, might become too powerful for him to handle. The Egyptains have already arrested two groups comprising 15 men armed with guns and explosives leaving El Arish, and are seeking a further four more gunmen with plans to kill/kidnap Israeli tourists elsewhere in Sinai. This is of course only the beginning, the longer the border remains open the more terrorists will infiltrate Sinai and Egypt and the greater is the likelihood of incidents that will be bad both for Egypt and Israel.
Unfortunately, Israel did not take the opportunity of the open border with Egypt to completely blockade Gaza and put the onus on Egypt to supply electricity and food. Nevertheless this week the Israeli Supreme Court rejected appeals by two left-wing pro-Palestinain organizations, one Arab Israeli the other Jewish Israeli, and said that the reduction of supplies of energy and food to Gaza were justified under the laws of war. This allows the Government to proceed with its previously stated policies, if it wants to. Such a move, of reducing supplies to Gaza, may affect the Annapolis peace negotiations with Pres. Abbas, since he will want to show solidarity with the Palestinains in Gaza. But, he is unlikely to do anything drastic such as break off talks, since any such blockade will harm his main enemy, Hamas. However, today Hamas PM Haniyeh announced that Gaza wants in future to be dependent on Egypt and not on Israel. Strangely this coincides with Israeli policy, but certainly not with Egyptian policy.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:20 PM
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