Thursday, March 27, 2008

Facing reality

The cornerstone of the Western approach to the Palestinians is that they are rational like us (even if a bit crazier) and given tangible improvements in their living conditions they will decide to make peace with Israel. As time has gone on, and billions of Western tax-payer dollars have been poured into the PA, the Palestinians have become more and more extreme in their views, and it has become clear that the Western "rational" view is contrary to experience and to the evidence. Nevertheless, the Bush Administration and many others cling to this mantra.
The fundamental problem is that the Palestinians have never reconciled themselves to living side-by-side with a permanent Jewish State. As recently as two weeks ago at the Organization of the Islamic Conference meeting in Morocco, Pres. Abbas of the PA stated that the Palestinians will never recognize Israel as a Jewish State, and this while in the midst of intense negotiations with the Israeli Govt.
The split of Gaza and the West Bank between Hamas and Fatah is symptomatic of the continued split between those who see their aim to destroy Israel as a nationalistic requirement, and those who see it as a religious obligation. The former group can be called "pragmatists" while the latter are "rejectionists," and it helps them that they believe that God is on their side.
Last week Sheikh Nasrullah, Head of Hizbollah, the Shia "Party of God" in Lebanon, gave a speech in which he stated that since the "victory" of Hizbollah in the Second Lebanon war of 2006 and the "victory" of Hamas in their rocket war against Israel, it is clear that soon Israel could be destroyed. An editorial in a paper in Kuwait ridiculed Nasrullah's claim, pointing out that Iran, with all its might, could not defeat the army of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, that the US forces swept aside in a few days. No combination of Muslim or Arab forces could defeat the IDF. Nevertheless, it is clear that Iran and its satellites, Hizbollah and Hamas, are preparing to try.
The Olmert Govt., with tacit US agreement, have stated that no peace agreement can be arrived at with the PA while Gaza, containing ca. one third of the Palestinian population, is under separate Hamas control. So why then continue to pursue peace talks with Pres. Abbas of the PA/West Bank. Actually, the joke in the West Bank is that Abbas controls not only the Mukata, the Presidential compound, but also its car park! His control hardly extends beyond Ramallah.
Nevertheless, in a continuing effort to empower him, this week Israel is handing over control of Jenin on the West Bank to a PA police contingent of 600 men that have been trained in Jordan. In addition they are to get 30 police vehicles and 20 armoured vehicles shipped in from Russia. It remains to be seen whether or not Abbas can extend his control over Jenin and whether or not the lack of law and order in the Palestinian street can be brought under control. And this is a long way from building the infrastructure of a real state, with an independent judiciary and a minimally transparent economy.
So why is Israel even bothering to "negotiate" with the PA? Especially since any actual agreement, even if it is only "for the shelf" can commit future Israeli Govts. to compromises that it may not want to fulfil, and therefore constitutes a future danger to the State. Are we doing this only to please Pres. Bush? I say let a future Govt. of Israel do the negotiations with a unified Palestinian Govt. that is both commited to peace and to the acceptance of a permanent Jewish State. Only then, in the distant future, could there be a real peace.
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This was written after hearing the talk of former Israeli Ambassador to the USA Zalman Shoval at the Likud Anglos meeting on 26/3/08.

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