Truce or consequences
In Lebanon, Hizbollah showed its muscle by responding to the Govt. of PM Seniora banning their private telecommunications network and firing the chief of security at Beirut Airport who cooperated with them, by attacking and for a few days occupying East Beirut. They killed some Sunni fighters, but did not venture into the Christian areas, except in Tripoli where they are still fighting and in the southern Druse area where they were repulsed. After 3 days, with the Arab League meeting today to discuss the matter, Hizbollah withdrew from its conquests.
Although this saved a renewal of the civil war in Lebanon, and although Hizbollah showed its strength, overall it was a loss for Sheikh Nasrullah. His backing down and withdrawing the militia fighters shows that he is unable to confront the other groups in Lebanon. The Lebanese Army remained more or less neutral, but that is because it is 60% Shi'ite and fears that it will split along ethnic lines as it did during the civil war. The Lebanese Army cancelled the decisions to ban Hizbollah's telecommunciations network and fire the security chief at Beirut airport. So after another spasm of violence things are more or less back to where they were.
Many commentators see this event as an attempt by Syria and Iran to interfere in Lebanese affairs again. But, within Lebanon they lack the firepower to take over the Government. Lebanon still has no President and no resolution is in sight. Also, in Gaza the activation of Hamas can be seen as a result of financial and logistic support by Iran for their attacks on Israel.
Last weekend Hamas fired about 20 rockets and mortars into Israel and one Israeli was killed in kibbutz Kfar Aza, near the border, and several others were injured. Once again PM Olmert warned Hamas of the consequences of its actions, but nothing much is expected to happen. Tomorrow the Egyptian security chief Omar Suleiman is due to arrive in Israel to propose a temporary truce (hudna) to Israel that has been negotiated by Hamas and Egypt, and also Pres. Bush is coming. Nothing much is expected to happen in Gaza until after he leaves. Then there will either be a truce or Israel will counterattack in force.
Although this saved a renewal of the civil war in Lebanon, and although Hizbollah showed its strength, overall it was a loss for Sheikh Nasrullah. His backing down and withdrawing the militia fighters shows that he is unable to confront the other groups in Lebanon. The Lebanese Army remained more or less neutral, but that is because it is 60% Shi'ite and fears that it will split along ethnic lines as it did during the civil war. The Lebanese Army cancelled the decisions to ban Hizbollah's telecommunciations network and fire the security chief at Beirut airport. So after another spasm of violence things are more or less back to where they were.
Many commentators see this event as an attempt by Syria and Iran to interfere in Lebanese affairs again. But, within Lebanon they lack the firepower to take over the Government. Lebanon still has no President and no resolution is in sight. Also, in Gaza the activation of Hamas can be seen as a result of financial and logistic support by Iran for their attacks on Israel.
Last weekend Hamas fired about 20 rockets and mortars into Israel and one Israeli was killed in kibbutz Kfar Aza, near the border, and several others were injured. Once again PM Olmert warned Hamas of the consequences of its actions, but nothing much is expected to happen. Tomorrow the Egyptian security chief Omar Suleiman is due to arrive in Israel to propose a temporary truce (hudna) to Israel that has been negotiated by Hamas and Egypt, and also Pres. Bush is coming. Nothing much is expected to happen in Gaza until after he leaves. Then there will either be a truce or Israel will counterattack in force.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:32 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home