Sunday, October 26, 2008

Israeli elections!

Shas has decided not to join Tzipi Livni's coalition government, and this has finally triggered a new election. Their reasons, as announced by Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadiah Joseph and its political head Eli Yishai, is that Livni failed to agree to replace the lost value of child allowances, and she would not guarantee not to divide Jerusalem in her negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. Another unstated factor is that she is a woman, and it rankles with the ultra-orthodox Shas party to have to be dictated to by a woman (men obviously know better).
At the same time and in parallel, Shas leaders have been secretly in contact with Bibi Netanyahu of Likud, and they hope to receive a better deal from him should he be elected PM in a new election, as the polls seem to indicate he will be. Bibi welcomed Shas back into the "national fold."
Since Livni with Labor on board has been unable to form a stable coalition with the rump parties, Meretz, Pensioners and United Torah Judaism, then she will have to give up her attempts to form a new Govt. in the current Knesset and she will tell Pres Peres at her meeting with him this afternoon that the country must go to new elections. The earliest date for elections is Feb 17, 2009.
Meanwhile, until he is actually indicted, Ehud Olmert remains caretaker PM under these circumstances. If he is indicted before a new Govt. is elected, I do not know what the constitutional requirements are, who would replace him as caretaker PM. The workings of the bureaucracy are a mystery. Maybe Pres. Peres will decide. Anyway no caretaker Govt. can make major decisions about concessions to the PA.
But, at least we've seen the last of Kadima for a while, and let's hope they are decimated in the election. Only Livni of Kadima is given a chance against Netanyahu of Likud. But, neither is likely get an absolute majority, so a coalition agreement will have to be worked out again, taking time and the paying of extortion to the smaller parties in the coalition.
I don't know which is better the Israeli or US election system. In many respects the Israeli version is better, the election period of 3 months is much shorter and so the primaries and electioneering don't take years as they do in the US! But, the outcome is far less clear, because even if the party wins and its leader becomes PM, he still has to barter with the leaders of other parties to form a coalition. Sometimes these coalitions include strange political bedfellows. Oh, for an absolute majority! Anway at least the political deadlock has been breached and finally there can be progress towards a new Govt, and hopefully a Likud one.

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