Election scenarios
There are several potential scenarios that may result from the upcoming elections in Israel and the USA, I consider four possibilities:
1. Obama wins in the US and Tzipi Livni of Kadima wins or remains in office here; when Iran announces it's successful accomplishment of a nuclear weapon, then nothing will be done. Both leaders will express their concern, but noone will have the guts to do anything, and it will be too late. When the bombs start falling here, Pres. Obama will issue a statement expressing his regret for the killing of millions of Israelis and the destruction of the State. This is what's at stake.
2. Obama wins and Bibi Netanyahu is elected PM here; he will give the order to the IAF to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and other sites just before they achieve that capability. Then, Pres. Obama will join the world-wide condemnation of Israel for "striking first," just as De Gaulle did in 1967.
3. McCain is elected US President and Tzipi Livni is PM here, then anything can happen, since neither will be prepared to take the initiative against Iran. Back to square one.
4. McCain wins and PM Netanyahu finds it necessary to strike Iran, then US forces will be ordered to support Israel in major respects, including a blockade of Iran, a resupply of Israel and support in the UN. Or am I dreaming?
Noone can foretell the future, but if I were to guess I would predict that scenario two will come about (note that I do not expect in any way that Iran will stop short of developing nuclear weapons). Namely, Obama will win the Presidential campaign and Netanyahu will win the Israeli election and a rift will develop in American-Israeli relations. So that when (not if) the IAF finds it necessary to strikes Iran it will be without US support and this will greatly exacerbate the situation. Let's hope I am wrong.
1. Obama wins in the US and Tzipi Livni of Kadima wins or remains in office here; when Iran announces it's successful accomplishment of a nuclear weapon, then nothing will be done. Both leaders will express their concern, but noone will have the guts to do anything, and it will be too late. When the bombs start falling here, Pres. Obama will issue a statement expressing his regret for the killing of millions of Israelis and the destruction of the State. This is what's at stake.
2. Obama wins and Bibi Netanyahu is elected PM here; he will give the order to the IAF to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and other sites just before they achieve that capability. Then, Pres. Obama will join the world-wide condemnation of Israel for "striking first," just as De Gaulle did in 1967.
3. McCain is elected US President and Tzipi Livni is PM here, then anything can happen, since neither will be prepared to take the initiative against Iran. Back to square one.
4. McCain wins and PM Netanyahu finds it necessary to strike Iran, then US forces will be ordered to support Israel in major respects, including a blockade of Iran, a resupply of Israel and support in the UN. Or am I dreaming?
Noone can foretell the future, but if I were to guess I would predict that scenario two will come about (note that I do not expect in any way that Iran will stop short of developing nuclear weapons). Namely, Obama will win the Presidential campaign and Netanyahu will win the Israeli election and a rift will develop in American-Israeli relations. So that when (not if) the IAF finds it necessary to strikes Iran it will be without US support and this will greatly exacerbate the situation. Let's hope I am wrong.
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:40 PM
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