Thursday, December 11, 2008

The Likud primary

The results of the Likud Primary were somewhat surprising. Netanyahu, who was assured no 1, got a good set of supporters, but the candidates chosen for the General Election next Feb. tended to be more right wing than he would have liked. His main rival in the Likud Party is Moshe Feiglin, who is head of a faction within the Party that calls itself the Jewish leadership group, and although Feiglin achieved only no. 20 on the list, he had several of his supporters in realistic positions if Likud were to get a large vote.
The number two is Gideon Saar, the Party Whip and a close associate of Bibi, also Benny Begin, the former PM's son who was out of politics for 9 years was no. 5, Moshe (Boogey) Yahalon, the former C-in-C was at number 8, and Yuval Steinitz was at no. 9. So Bibi got a good list, but many of his chosen candidates were beaten out towards the lower end of the list by Feiglin's candidates, for example Danny Danon, the Head of World Likud who is at 26 beat out Tal Brody, the famous Basketball champion and US immigrant supported by Bibi for a local spot in the central district. The other main Anglo candidates from English-speaking countries did not do well, such as Yehiel Leiter of One Jerusalem who was at no. 39, probably an unrealistic spot. Nevertheless, moderate Dan Meridor, who has rejoined Likud after a sojourn in Kadima, was at no. 17, so he beat out Feiglin, but Uzi Dayan another well-known moderate was only at no. 42.
The general impact of these results is that Likud moved somewhat to the right, and this was how it was depicted in most Israeli newspapers, although one must remember that most Israeli newspapers are biased pro-left. Some commentators concluded that the right-ward shift might reduce the popularity of Likud in the General Election. But, a poll done immediately after the primary showed Likud getting even more seats, 37, as opposed to its previous estimate of 36. Meanwhile Kadima is at 20 seats and Labor at 10. But, these cannot be considered definite since Kadima has not yet had its primary.
There are two new parties in the race, one on the right, made up of the former National Religious Party, that usually got 5-6 seats in every Knesset, and the National Union, and they hope to make a party to the right of Likud, but they aren't given much chance, especially since the Likud list includes a fairly high proportion of religious people. On the left, Efraim Sneh gave up on Labor and resigned a few months ago and has now established a new party on the left, called "Strong Israel," that is misleadingly titled like a right-wing party, but Sneh puts the emphasis on social concerns. The Labor Party seems in decline, the arrogance of party head Ehud Barak has not helped it assemble an attractive list. So far, the two main parties that had primaries, Labor and Likud, have both had computer voting problems, and this caused Labor to cancel its Primary and start again with paper ballotting.
The story of the Likud list is not over yet, several supporters of Bibi were dissatisfied with their placing, such as Limor Livnat at no. 13 and Miri Regev, the former Govt. spokesperson, at 34. So Netanyahu has approached the Party Court to find out if he can "raise" the places of certian groups, such as women and immigrants, that would have the effect of strengthening his position in the Party. Whether this stratagem will work remains to be seen, but in any case Likud is still in a winning position.

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