The Egyptian role
Egypt has a crucial role in the current war in Gaza, and it is playing both sides of the fence.
Pres. Mubarak was acting as an intermediary in the talks between Pres. Abbas of the PA and the Hamas leadership of PM Haniyeh in Gaza and Khaled Mashaal in Damascus. He was also trying to persuade Hamas to renew the ceasefire (tardiyah) with Israel before it expired in December. But Hamas did not bother to show up for the intra-Palestinian talks and rejected calls for a continuation of the ceasefire, instead increasing the number and range of the rockets being fired into Israel. Israel could not tolerate this, but it is noteworthy that FM Tzipi Livni went to Cairo and met with Mubarak days before the IAF started its aerial campaign against Gaza.
Mubarak has kept the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza closed ever since, and has allowed only very few injured casualties to enter Egypt. Further he has not allowed any food or medical supplies into Gaza. Yet it is Israel, that is allowing hundreds of trucks thru its crossings with Gaza (800 since the war started), that receives all the criticism. While Mubarak is chastising Israel for causing a humanitarian crisis, he has kept the Rafah crossing closed, what hypocrisy! Neither the UN nor any media have citicized Mubarak for this.
Further, in 2005 it was agreed between Israel, Egypt and the PA that the Rafah and Karni crossings would be kept open but with EU monitors as well as Israeli TV monitoring in Rafah. Also, Egypt agreed to stop all smuggling thru tunnels into Gaza. However, it was futile to allow Israel's security to be in the hands of the Egyptians. What happened was that Hamas took over in 2007, killed the PA guards, and opened the crossing without any hindrance to Palestinian movement. Mubarak could not accept this, and although he used it as propaganda against Israel (he was allowing the Gazans to have free movement), he quickly clamped down, brought in armed guards and closed the crossing. He has vowed that he will not open it until the PA is back in charge of the crossing and he will not accept international monitors on Egyptian soil. That means that whoever is in charge of Gaza must accept such an international presence in Gaza, but clearly Hamas will never agree to that. So there is an impasse on the Arab side, that can only be solved if Hamas is toppled and the PA is reinstated in control of Gaza. And who do they expect to accomplish this, why Israel of course!
So Mubarak, while criticizing Israel for its actions in Gaza, is depending on Israel to remove Hamas and replace it with the PA. How this is supposed to happen is unclear. The advantage of having the PA in charge is that there is already an agreement with them including international monitors for the Rafah crossing. Also, Egypt is strongly against Hamas because it is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is his main opposition within Egypt, and doesn't want them on his border, and further he is strongly against the influence of Iran in the region. Because of the friction between Egypt and Hamas, the Turkish PM Erdoglu has been mediated between them!
Nevertheless, while the crossing was closed the number of tunnels under the Egyptian-Gaza border skyrocketed, there were at least 200 of them, maybe 400, and some of them were large enough to bring livestock and rockets through. Presumably the Egyptians did not close them down because they were earning large sums of money from this illegal trade, and the money no doubt comes from Iran and the EU.
Now that Israel has destroyed most of these tunnels and will not accept a return to the status quo ante, where Egypt turns a blind eye to the illegal and damaging weapons trade, Mubarak himself has stated that this smuggling should stop. Nevertheless there seems to be no practical way that this can be accomplished unless the Rafah crossing is open, and for Mubarak this requires the PA to be in charge and international monitors stationed in Gaza, which Hamas would nto accept. So we are back to square one. Israel cannot accomplish one of its major war aims, i.e. after stopping the rockets being fired, stopping the smuggling of weapons from Egypt. How this can be accomplished to obtain a "durable, lasting and effective ceasefire" seems beyond rational possibility.
However, Egypt is now in the key position to negotiate the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas (which refuse to deal with each other) called for in UN SC Resolution 1860. He has also been dubbed the official intermediary by the Arab League, thus giving their responsibility to him. Therefore Mubarak may be in a key position to give the IDF enough time to destroy the capability of Hamas to control Gaza and then somehow engineer the return of the PA. It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
Pres. Mubarak was acting as an intermediary in the talks between Pres. Abbas of the PA and the Hamas leadership of PM Haniyeh in Gaza and Khaled Mashaal in Damascus. He was also trying to persuade Hamas to renew the ceasefire (tardiyah) with Israel before it expired in December. But Hamas did not bother to show up for the intra-Palestinian talks and rejected calls for a continuation of the ceasefire, instead increasing the number and range of the rockets being fired into Israel. Israel could not tolerate this, but it is noteworthy that FM Tzipi Livni went to Cairo and met with Mubarak days before the IAF started its aerial campaign against Gaza.
Mubarak has kept the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza closed ever since, and has allowed only very few injured casualties to enter Egypt. Further he has not allowed any food or medical supplies into Gaza. Yet it is Israel, that is allowing hundreds of trucks thru its crossings with Gaza (800 since the war started), that receives all the criticism. While Mubarak is chastising Israel for causing a humanitarian crisis, he has kept the Rafah crossing closed, what hypocrisy! Neither the UN nor any media have citicized Mubarak for this.
Further, in 2005 it was agreed between Israel, Egypt and the PA that the Rafah and Karni crossings would be kept open but with EU monitors as well as Israeli TV monitoring in Rafah. Also, Egypt agreed to stop all smuggling thru tunnels into Gaza. However, it was futile to allow Israel's security to be in the hands of the Egyptians. What happened was that Hamas took over in 2007, killed the PA guards, and opened the crossing without any hindrance to Palestinian movement. Mubarak could not accept this, and although he used it as propaganda against Israel (he was allowing the Gazans to have free movement), he quickly clamped down, brought in armed guards and closed the crossing. He has vowed that he will not open it until the PA is back in charge of the crossing and he will not accept international monitors on Egyptian soil. That means that whoever is in charge of Gaza must accept such an international presence in Gaza, but clearly Hamas will never agree to that. So there is an impasse on the Arab side, that can only be solved if Hamas is toppled and the PA is reinstated in control of Gaza. And who do they expect to accomplish this, why Israel of course!
So Mubarak, while criticizing Israel for its actions in Gaza, is depending on Israel to remove Hamas and replace it with the PA. How this is supposed to happen is unclear. The advantage of having the PA in charge is that there is already an agreement with them including international monitors for the Rafah crossing. Also, Egypt is strongly against Hamas because it is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is his main opposition within Egypt, and doesn't want them on his border, and further he is strongly against the influence of Iran in the region. Because of the friction between Egypt and Hamas, the Turkish PM Erdoglu has been mediated between them!
Nevertheless, while the crossing was closed the number of tunnels under the Egyptian-Gaza border skyrocketed, there were at least 200 of them, maybe 400, and some of them were large enough to bring livestock and rockets through. Presumably the Egyptians did not close them down because they were earning large sums of money from this illegal trade, and the money no doubt comes from Iran and the EU.
Now that Israel has destroyed most of these tunnels and will not accept a return to the status quo ante, where Egypt turns a blind eye to the illegal and damaging weapons trade, Mubarak himself has stated that this smuggling should stop. Nevertheless there seems to be no practical way that this can be accomplished unless the Rafah crossing is open, and for Mubarak this requires the PA to be in charge and international monitors stationed in Gaza, which Hamas would nto accept. So we are back to square one. Israel cannot accomplish one of its major war aims, i.e. after stopping the rockets being fired, stopping the smuggling of weapons from Egypt. How this can be accomplished to obtain a "durable, lasting and effective ceasefire" seems beyond rational possibility.
However, Egypt is now in the key position to negotiate the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas (which refuse to deal with each other) called for in UN SC Resolution 1860. He has also been dubbed the official intermediary by the Arab League, thus giving their responsibility to him. Therefore Mubarak may be in a key position to give the IDF enough time to destroy the capability of Hamas to control Gaza and then somehow engineer the return of the PA. It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
posted by Jack Cohen at 11:52 AM
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