Tuesday, January 06, 2009

End plan?

Now that the IDF has gone in on the ground we can expect to hear about casualties. So far 4 IDF soldiers have been killed (3 by an errant Israeli shell) and ca. 100 Hamas gunmen according to the IDF. Actually, when people talk about proportionality, they forget all the Israeli casualties from the war waged by Hamas against Israel since the intifada in 2000. What about the hundreds of Israeli casualties, from the buses blown up in Jerusalem, the restaurants and bars blwown up in Tel Aviv, the Arab-owned restaurant blown up in Haifa where Jews and Arabs mingled, and the Jewish children deliberately killed in Gaza before they were removed by our own Army. When I remember them I am glad that the strutting, shouting, black uniformed Hamas terrorists are being decimated in Gaza.
The question arises, how many Hamas would the IDF need to kill to "destroy" the organization. The answer is quite simple, ca. 5,000! The rule that applies is that ca. 25% of an organization needs to be removed for the organization to cease to be able to operate effectively (I wrote an article about this some time ago). So far the number of people killed in Gaza is reported to be ca. 600, with about 10% being civilians. But, we have been told that Hamas has an army of 10,000, with another 10,000 "reserves" or active supporters (police, making rockets, importing weapons, throwing Molotov cocktails, etc.). So 25% of ca. 20,000 is 5,000. That means that there are ca. 4,500 to go! But, that's not accurate, since ca. 2,500 have been injured, and ca. 100 have now been captured. So that if the total that are dead or incapacitated are ca. 3,000, that means only 2,000 more to go. Now, these don't have to be killed, but effectively put out of action, e.g. many leaders are in hiding, and afraid to use their cell phones or land phones because of the excellent Israeli intelligence and the large number of Palestinian collaborators (many belonging to Fatah). Also, now that the IDF has cut Gaza into two and surrounded Gaza city the effectivness of Hamas "command and control" is drastically reduced. This alone, as well as the absence of military supplies, should greatly reduce the number of rockets that they can fire, thus achieving one aim of the operation.
The feeling is that the international "wolves" are circling Israel, the EU representatives visiting now, Pres. Sarkozy getting very superior, Egypt working with Turkey, the Americans being holier than thou as usual. Probably within a few days, now that Hamas is feeling the pressure, a compromise resolution will be presented to the UN Security Council that is more balanced than the Arab resolution previously presented by Libya and rejected. That will leave the IDF in control of large swathes of Gaza, a good bargaining position. If they are to withdraw then verifiable and guaranteed agreements must be reached for neutral and Israeli oversight to prevent future rocketing and smuggling. But, we all know that these never amount to anything effective (viz Lebanon). At least it might give Hamas pause (as it has Hizbollah) before they put into action again the plans they have to destroy Israel. Meanwhile Israeli Govt. sources say the Operation may end within a few days

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