Gaza outcomes?
There are three possible outcomes of the present IDF Operation Cast Lead in Gaza:
1. A ceasefire agreement will be reached under the auspices of the EU, or Egypt and Turkey, or the UN or the Quartet. If this happens soon then Hamas' armed forces will remain intact and their ability to fire rockets into Israel, as they did today, will be almost unaffected. Although Hamas has been dealt a blow, it will still be able to control Gaza and hence will remain a threat in the future. So the status quo will not have been changed.
2. The IDF will now mount a ground invasion into Gaza to mop up Hamas forces and to destroy rocket firing facilities and stores. This will reduce the threat of future rocket attacks for some time, but this would only be temporary, since the supply of rockets can soon be replaced by manufacture in Gaza and/or smuggling from Egypt. If a ceasefire is agreed then once again it will only be temporary given that Hamas will not have lost its intention of killing Israeli civilians and destroying Israel. A cynical approach would be to allow Hamas to continue to rule in Gaza (but without rocket firings) and this will continue to divide the Palestinian people and prevent the PA and Israel from reaching any kind of peace agreement for the foreseeable future.
3. The IDF ground offensive continues for some time and Hamas leaders are detected and killed. Then the whole of Hamas will have been essentially destroyed, and they will be unable to control Gaza and mount further offensive operations against Israel. This is the ultimate goal of the Israeli Govt. However, no Israeli Govt. wants to re-occupy Gaza, but rather they want to "pacify" it. Since no-one (except a few British liberals) expect Hamas to change its policies, the end result should be "regime change."
The best way this could be accomplished is in cooperation with the Fatah leadership of the PA, Pres. Abbas and PM Fayyad. This may be the proverbial "exit strategy" that all progressive Jews require. This will satisfy most concerned, the PA will reverse the coup of Hamas in Gaza, which they were unable to do by themselves, Egypt will have a potential source of anti-regime activities removed from its border, and of course Israel will stop the rocket firings. Let's hope this will be the final outcome. However, before this happens there may be a lot of heavy fighting and there will be losses on both sides. Let's hope the outcome justifies the means.
1. A ceasefire agreement will be reached under the auspices of the EU, or Egypt and Turkey, or the UN or the Quartet. If this happens soon then Hamas' armed forces will remain intact and their ability to fire rockets into Israel, as they did today, will be almost unaffected. Although Hamas has been dealt a blow, it will still be able to control Gaza and hence will remain a threat in the future. So the status quo will not have been changed.
2. The IDF will now mount a ground invasion into Gaza to mop up Hamas forces and to destroy rocket firing facilities and stores. This will reduce the threat of future rocket attacks for some time, but this would only be temporary, since the supply of rockets can soon be replaced by manufacture in Gaza and/or smuggling from Egypt. If a ceasefire is agreed then once again it will only be temporary given that Hamas will not have lost its intention of killing Israeli civilians and destroying Israel. A cynical approach would be to allow Hamas to continue to rule in Gaza (but without rocket firings) and this will continue to divide the Palestinian people and prevent the PA and Israel from reaching any kind of peace agreement for the foreseeable future.
3. The IDF ground offensive continues for some time and Hamas leaders are detected and killed. Then the whole of Hamas will have been essentially destroyed, and they will be unable to control Gaza and mount further offensive operations against Israel. This is the ultimate goal of the Israeli Govt. However, no Israeli Govt. wants to re-occupy Gaza, but rather they want to "pacify" it. Since no-one (except a few British liberals) expect Hamas to change its policies, the end result should be "regime change."
The best way this could be accomplished is in cooperation with the Fatah leadership of the PA, Pres. Abbas and PM Fayyad. This may be the proverbial "exit strategy" that all progressive Jews require. This will satisfy most concerned, the PA will reverse the coup of Hamas in Gaza, which they were unable to do by themselves, Egypt will have a potential source of anti-regime activities removed from its border, and of course Israel will stop the rocket firings. Let's hope this will be the final outcome. However, before this happens there may be a lot of heavy fighting and there will be losses on both sides. Let's hope the outcome justifies the means.
posted by Jack Cohen at 4:18 PM
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