Sunday, January 18, 2009

Israeli deterrence

Why did the allies bomb Dresden to smithereens at the end of WWII? The official reason given was that it was an important railway junction for German troops going East. But, actually this was an excuse. It was known that Dresden, because it was a railway junction, had become a major center for refugees seeking safety, because they thought that Dresden being a beautiful old city with no important industries would be spared bombing by the Allies. Actually they made a mistake, because the Allies had not declared that Dresden was a "safe" city, and they bombed it to rubble in February, 1944, near the end of the War. The ostensible reason for this was to show the Russians, who were just then approaching Dresden, that the Western Democratic Allies would stoop to ruthless destruction if necessary, and this was a strong message to Josef Stalin, "don't mess with us!"
When the Russian forces arrived at Dresden they were surprised that there was no resistance and then they saw the extent of the damage (this was just before the A-bombs were ready) and they were very impressed. As it happens this was one of the major war crimes of WWII, because ca. 50,000 innocent civilians were killed in the 100 bomber raids that rained bombs on Dresden day and night (the British by night and the US by day), until there was a fire storm that incinerated everything within the city for miles.
Two unfortunate Allied prisoners who happened to witness this travesty were David Irving, who partly as a result of this became pro-German and wrote the book "The Destruction of Dresden" and Kurt Vonnegut, who became a pacifist and wrote "Slaughterhouse five" about his experience. Notably no-one was tried for this crime against humanity, after all we were the winning side. Now the nations that carried out this raid are criticising Israel for, what is it, 250 civilian casualties in a 22 day war? That is truly ridiculous!
The US adopted a similar approach in the war on Iraq, using the "shock and awe" strategy, namely overwhelming force to cause such extensive destruction as to reduce the enemy to a state of inaction.
In Gaza, the destruction to infrastructure, including government buildings, rocket workshops and stores, mosques (where rockets and other military equipment were stored), houses of Hamas leaders, tunnels, and so on, is truly impressive. The same went for the destruction of Hizbollah infrastructure in south Lebanon by the IAF in 2006, for example their center in south Beirut was practically flattened. These levels of destruction by the IAF were deliberate, and are undoubtedly sending a message to the enemy "don't step on me!" (as the Californians put it). In other words, taking a lesson from the Dresden example of the Allies against Stalin, huge destruction of infratructure is a good way of conveying a message, we are serious, we mean business. Now Hizbollah, that I am sure ached to get in on the side of Hamas in this fight, were deterred, and in future we hope that Hamas will be deterred. If they are not yet, and they refuse to accept the ceasefire, then they will reap the consequences.

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