Monday, February 09, 2009

On the eve of...

The other evening I saw a British reporter giving his opinion about the current situation here, and he was asked by the anchor why there was no fuss in Israel about the "Palestinian casualties of the war in Gaza." He replied that the Israeli public was now focussed on the elections and so what had happened in Gaza is not uppermost on their minds (he could have said that there were not that many casualties in Gaza, but that would have been against conventional belief).
The fact is that now we are all thinking about the election tomorrow and what could happen as a result. Many observers are concerned that Pres. Obama intends to try to "solve" the Israel-Palestine conflict at our expense. His would not be the first US Administration that put pressure on Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians in order to placate the Arab world. Also, his woeful mea culpa to the Al Arabiya network sounded more an admission of American guilt than a statement of righteousness. If the US has been wrong all along, then the Arabs and Iran will see this as a sign of weakness, that never placates them but only goads them into action.
What we in Israel will need most is a strong leader who can represent Israel's true interests and not merely be a figurehead genuflecting to American power.
On Monday, PM Olmert finally endorsed Tzipi Livni as his replacement. This is definitely too late to have any real effect, but it finally places her as the heir to the Kadima throne. But, what experience does she have She has never been in high military position and she has no previous experience of high office before becoming Foreign Minister, and she has been mediocre at that. In other words she is a lightweight with a Kadima policy of withdrawal in face of Arab aggression.
The war in Gaza did not help her nor her erstwhile opponent Ehud Barak, leader of Labor, very much, because most Israelis regard it as being too little, too late. Why did they sit by and allow 6,000 rockets to be fired into Israel for 3 years after the disastrous withdrawal from Gaza. They only initiated the war when they saw the election on the horizon.
There is no doubt that there has been a significant shift of the electorate to the right. But, Bibi Netanyahu has not been the only recipient of this swing, Avigdor Lieberman and his Israel Beitanu (Our Home Israel) has received a large increase in support, from 11 seats to a predicted 18, ahead of Labor. But, he is even more rightwing than Netanyahu and since he was also in the Kadima Government for a time, he appears to be an opportunist and a demagogue.
So that leaves Netanyahu of Likud to vote for. He may be the best of a bad bunch, but he is the only candidate with sufficient experience and a strong Zionist agenda who might be able to oppose the Palestinians, placate the Arab moderates and strongly oppose the Iranian plan to "wipe Israel off the map." In Israel elections are not just a matter of significance as in the US or UK, here they are a matter of life and death.

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