Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Fayad's resignation

The resignation of PA PM Salam Fayad, effective at the end of the month, brings to an end a stormy period in the history of the PA. Fayed is not a member of Fatah or Hamas, but of a small independent party the Third Way, that could not have been elected on its own, but he was appointed by Pres. Abbas of the PA as a trustworthy economist. Fayad was originally appointed as Finance Minister of the PA by Yasir Arafat, but when he pointed out that Arafat was misusing aid money and demanded more transparency, he was fired (many thought that he would be assassinated). But, then Arafat died, and Abbas appointed Fayad as PM with American support.
Now that Fatah and Hamas are in serious negotiations in Egypt about forming a unity government for the PA as the only way to obtain the reconstruction funds of around b$4 that have been promised by the international community, Fayad must go. To Hamas he is unacceptable, since he is too moderate, and to Fatah he is a problem because he is too honest and might reveal their plans to siphon off large amounts of the money.
Fayad represents that rare species, a responsible Palestinian politician who is both honest and pragmatic. Clearly he is too moderate and pro-Western for Hamas and so he had to go to make room for them. The formation of a PA Unity Government between Fatah and Hamas would be an unacceptable move for Israel, and would make it impossible for Israel to have any more dealings with the whole PA Government. This would immediately stop any peace process.
The US has opposed Fayad's resignation and has asked Pres. Abbas to reappoint him, something that Fayad himself has ruled out. So it would leave the US hanging, just as Pres. Obama wants to show how ready he is to dialog, the inclusion of Hamas in a PA Government might also make it impossible for the US to deal with it too, since the US defines Hamas as as terrorist organization (so does the EU but it wouldn't stop them). An alternative would be for the US to change it's designation of Hamas, and this is not impossible.
There are several potential outcomes. Either a PA Unity Govt. will be formed between Hamas and Fatah, and then all Western and Israeli contacts are off, until further elections might clarify the issue. This might give Hamas even more power, including in the West Bank, which would definitely terminate any peace process. Or, Fatah could come out the winners thus renewing Western contacts. Alternatively, Fatah and Hamas might not be able to form a Unity Government and then we are back to square one.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home