Friday, March 06, 2009

Iran first

As Secty of State Clinton has been going around the Middle East she has been hearing complaints from many sources about one topic - Iran. While she was in Egypt for the Donor's Conference on Gaza, the main topic she was confronted with was not Hamas in Gaza, but Iran that stands behind Hamas and funds it and supplies it with arms.
Iran uses hatred of Israel as a propaganda tool to stir up support for itself in the Arab and Muslim worlds, but its proximal aim is not the destruction of Israel, it has its proxies Hamas and Hizbollah to do that, but it seeks to extend its hegemonic control over it's local region, the Persian Gulf. As a consequence the Arab Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are all very concerned about being threatened by an Iranian nuclear bomb. They and US forces in the Gulf are the true immediate targets of Iranian expansionism.
Since Hamas is the spoiler in the Palestinian situtation, the progress towards a peace process is stymied in effect by Iran. Whether or not Hamas can be destroyed or disabled from firing rockets into Israel, the fact remains that Iran will continue to supply it and other terrorist groups, such as Islamic Jihad, which is a full-fledged extension of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, with the necessary means to attack Israel. Therefore, the only way to resolve the Palestinian conflict is to neutralize Iran first. This is the logic of the current situation and it is unavoidable. There is no "two state solution" possible while Hamas and Hizbollah are being supported by Iran in order to bring about a "one state solution," i.e. the destruction of Israel.
It seems that the hand of negotiation if not friendship that Pres. Obama proferred to Iran's leaders has been summarily rejected by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who in very insulting language gave a public speech in which he called Israel a "cancer" and blamed the US for Israel's existence. If dialog with Iran, as with Hamas, is impossible, then a ratcheting up of the sanctions regime is needed. Apparently Pres. Obama has tried to do this by offering a deal to Russia - we won't deploy our missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic, if you stop supporting Iran's nuclear development and instead support further sanctions against Iran. So far Pres. Medvedev has responded with a luke warm speech repeating Russia's right to trade with Iran. But this seems like a good deal for Russia, since its main foreign policy objective has been to stop the eastward creep of NATO and US influence. In this situation there might be a good deal for all concerned, Russia, the US, the Arabs and Israel.
Overall it is clear that before any progress can be made in the Israel-Palestine conflict the problem of an expansionist, nuclear armed Iran must be dealt with first.

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