Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Sacrificial lamb

Why did the Iranian Government decide to arrest Roxana Sabari, an Iranian-American journalist who has been working in Teheran for 6 years, and after a quick secret trial on espionage charges, sentence her to 8 years in jail? The reason clearly is that this is a mini-test for Pres. Obama, she is a sacrificial lamb.
Pres. Ahmedinejad and Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei responded negatively to Pres. Obama's overtures, proposing a new era of good relations. In effect they rejected any relations with the US until Obama changes US policies to align with theirs. In other words, the US must abandon its support for Israel, accept the Iranian development of nuclear technology and missiles as legitimate, and generally become philo-Muslim.
When he was in Turkey recently, Obama showed how far he was prepared to bend over backwards (or too far forwards) to be nice to the Muslims. In his speech to the Turkish Parliament, Obama went so far as to say that Islam played a role in the development of the United States, which is sheer nonsense and is not true, the only role Islam has played in US history is the the blowing up of the World Trade Center on 9/11!
The Iranians want to test Obama, to see how far he is prepared to go, but they don't want to challenge him militarily because he might react strongly. So they devised a little test. Sabari was arrested last week, and at first she was charged with being in Iran illegally, then she was charged with disseminating lies about Iran, and finally she was charged with espionage. It was as if they were decideing how to proceed in stages. Further, her trial was held in secret and no evidence has been provided for this charge.
At his press conference at the Summit meeting in Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean, Obama expressed his "concern" about Sabari, and said he was sure she was not a spy. But, so far the US has not reacted strongly to her arrest. The Iranians are waiting to see if Obama continues with his proposal for dialog with Iran despite Sabari's arrest, or if he will change his policy as a result of this affront to his Administration. So this is the first mini-test that Iran is throwing in his way, and how he reacts will determine how strong the next test will be. Not to respond will be interpreted as weakness on the part of Obama, something that one cannot afford to show to extremists and fanatics.

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