Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Bad deal?

I am worried that given the tendency for Pres. Obama to want to show the other side that he is not really their enemy, Obama will try to force Israel to make a deal: "We'll support you if you feel the need to attack Iran, as long as you give us the freeze on all construction in the West Bank including Jerusalem."
This deal might be attractive to Netanyahu, or any Israeli PM, given that going it alone on Iran is a well-nigh impossible task for the IDF, and if Israel is isolated in the international community, even for doing something that many of them want, then that could lead to dire consequences for Israel. Not only an Iranian retaliation, but the cooperation of other forces, such as the Arab States. They may feel, in their usual antagonistic response to anything that Israel does, that throwing their weight behind Iran is the lesser of two evils. And the absence of any support from the EU or US and possible condemnation at the UN, could have unpredictable but likely untenable consequences for Israel.
On the other hand, Israel has never received the full support of any state, not even the US. On several occasions when the situation has been dire, the US has failed to come through. I think of the failure of Pres. LB Johnson to live up to his commitment of sending an "armada" of ships to open the Gulf of Eilat when it was illegally closed by Pres. Nasser of Egypt in 1967. I remember how Pres. Nixon and Secty of State Kissinger blackmailed Israel in order to get concessions before they would resupply Israel with needed arms in 1973. And how the US reacted with the rest of the world against Israel's legitimate bombing of the Osirak reactor in Baghdad in 1981. Anyone, including the Arabs, who think that the US is an "automatic" supporter of Israel, does not know history. Now Obama is using the "settlement issue" to browbeat Israel. And they are callously assuming that Israel will give in because the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel is a matter of life or death.
I hope that Netanyahu does not make any deal like this, for two reasons; first, even if the US and by extension the EU promise to give support to Israel if we do actually attack the Iranian facilities, there is no guarantee that they won't succumb to international pressure and renege on their commitment of support as before. Second, Israel is a sovereign country that is entitled to act in its own defense and interests; by subjugating this freedom of action to US blackmail we endanger our sovereignty and the whole ethos of Zionism, to be a free people in our own land.
Next week it is announced that four (!) representatives of the Obama Administration will be visiting Israel, special envoy George Mitchell, Secty of Defense Robert Gates, National Security Advisor James Jones, and another well-known name Dennis Ross. Remember Ross was the Jewish representative of Pres. Clinton to the Middle East, who wrote a book about his experiences in which he admitted that the Clinton Administration (including himself) put extreme pressure on Israel while allowing Yasir Arafat to get away with almost everything, because they knew he was a liar and a cheat and could not trust him anyway. The US under Clinton gave him millions of dollars paid into his personal bank accounts knowing that he was stealing it (US taxpayer's money). Now Ross wants to go back to that situation, the status quo ante, ignoring everything that has happened during the Bush Administration in between. That is why they deny the Bush commitment to Israel, both written and oral, that there could be adjusments to the 1967 lines for Israeli retention of densely Jewish populated areas in the p[rocess of establishing a Palestianin State. At the same time they claim they are "friends" of Israel. With such friends who needs enemies.

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