Sunday, August 02, 2009

No, again!

The answer was not slow in coming. After the weeks of putting inordinate
pressure on Israel regarding a freeze on all construction in the West
Bank, and receiving the response from the Netanyahu Government that no
such freeze would be imposed without a commitment of a serious response
forthcoming from the Arab side, today (Saturday) the Saudi Arabian
Government gave it's considered response, "NO!"
There will be no Arab gestures towards Israel in any way until Israel
first withdraws from all the "occupied territory" according to the
Saudi "Peace plan," the Saudi FM Prince Saud al-Faisal announced at a
press conference with Secty of State Clinton in Washington today. Not
only does this intransigence make a mockery of any conceivable point to
Israel making any concessions, but it leaves the basis of the supposed
Obama strategy in ruins.
Even though embarrassed by this clear rejection Clinton tried to downplay
the disaster. Prince Saud siad "what is needed is a comprehensive
approach that defiens the final outcome before at the outset." If the
final outcome is known in advance then why have negotiations at all?
Obama's approach was based on the assumption that by placating the Arabs,
by making his conciliatory speech from Cairo, by overtly putting pressure
on Israel, his Administration would be uniquely rewarded by some sign of
compromise from the Arab side. But, as I and many others predicted, this
strategy, that has been tried before (Carter, Kissinger, Clinton), would
fail again. Whether or not the Arabs believe that they have a God-given
right to the territories or whether or not various Israeli groups believe
the same, the fact is that no progress can be made until both sides are
prepared to compromise. Since the Arab side is unprepared to do this,
there is no point in Israel making dangerous one-sided concessions.
One aspect of the Obama approach (one could hardly call it a "plan') is
that because of the threat of Iran looming large, the so-
called "moderate" Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, would be
more inclined to make concessions. The idea was that if this would be
the case then a deal could be made for Israeli plans to attack Iran in
case the sanctions don't work, in exchange for an Arab agreement not to
interfere and to let the IAF over-fly their territories. But, the usual
fear of any compromise with the "Zionist entity"by the ultra-conservative
Saudi regime has trumped that weak argument.
The question now is whether out of lack of any other plan the Obama
Administration will continue limping on its path to pressure Israel, or
whether they might actually come up with an improved plan that takes
account of the actual situation, namely that Arab intransigence and
division is what prevents any progress towards peace.

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