Convoluted Palestinian politics
According to reports, Pres. Abbas of the PA warned Pres. Obama last week, when they spoke by telephone, that if Israel does not institute a full building freeze on the West Bank then he will not run in the upcoming January Palestinian elections. Apart from the fact that Obama was unsuccessful in persuading PM Netanyahu to asccept such a freeze in the past, Obama is on record as wanting negotiations to resume without preconditions. So the threat to Obama was a way of trying to force him to strong arm Netanyahu and deliver Israel on a platter. It didn't work and it won't work, even though the US wants Abbas to run again.
But, his popularity among his people is very low, after he initially failed to capitalize on the Goldstone Report and is seen as a puppet of America, that is hated among Palestinians. However, the situation in the West Bank has improved, with a 7% GDP increase this year and a new large mall built in the center of Ramallah. This results partly from the removal of ca. 160 IDF checkpoints from the West Bank as well as the development of the economy being the active policy of Netanyahu, Abbas and PM Fayyad and Obama.
Meanwhile conditions in Gaza worsen, the damage from Operation Cast Lead has not been repaired since Hamas would not give any assurances about control of terrorism. The economic situation there worsens, yet Hamas seems to be politically in the ascendency, such is the nature of Palestinian politics, the extreme always dominates.
Hamas has vowed not to cooperate with the PA elections in January, they will not run so that Fatah and some independents will run unopposed in the West Bank. But, they could also prevent not only voters in Gaza from participating, but also voters in the West Bank. They could try to disrupt the election (anyway they oppose democracy) and this could lead to further internal violence.
Ironically one view, of the Israeli right, is that if Abbas and Fayyad are reelected, then the US will be beholden to give them further support at Israel's expense, including the promise of a State in two years! So the thinking goes that, as far as the West Bank voting is concerned, Israel and Hamas have shared interests. However, there is no way that either side would cooperate or even acknowledge this situation. But, the mainstream in Israel would prefer that Abbas win and maintain calm in the West Bank for the foreseeable future. However, if the "young guard" of Fatah defeat Abbas then other outcomes are possible, including a period if instability and/or a rapprochement with Hamas.
But, his popularity among his people is very low, after he initially failed to capitalize on the Goldstone Report and is seen as a puppet of America, that is hated among Palestinians. However, the situation in the West Bank has improved, with a 7% GDP increase this year and a new large mall built in the center of Ramallah. This results partly from the removal of ca. 160 IDF checkpoints from the West Bank as well as the development of the economy being the active policy of Netanyahu, Abbas and PM Fayyad and Obama.
Meanwhile conditions in Gaza worsen, the damage from Operation Cast Lead has not been repaired since Hamas would not give any assurances about control of terrorism. The economic situation there worsens, yet Hamas seems to be politically in the ascendency, such is the nature of Palestinian politics, the extreme always dominates.
Hamas has vowed not to cooperate with the PA elections in January, they will not run so that Fatah and some independents will run unopposed in the West Bank. But, they could also prevent not only voters in Gaza from participating, but also voters in the West Bank. They could try to disrupt the election (anyway they oppose democracy) and this could lead to further internal violence.
Ironically one view, of the Israeli right, is that if Abbas and Fayyad are reelected, then the US will be beholden to give them further support at Israel's expense, including the promise of a State in two years! So the thinking goes that, as far as the West Bank voting is concerned, Israel and Hamas have shared interests. However, there is no way that either side would cooperate or even acknowledge this situation. But, the mainstream in Israel would prefer that Abbas win and maintain calm in the West Bank for the foreseeable future. However, if the "young guard" of Fatah defeat Abbas then other outcomes are possible, including a period if instability and/or a rapprochement with Hamas.
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:20 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home