Sunday, November 15, 2009

Unilateral Palestinian Statehood?

According to PA spokesman, Saeb Erakat, moves are underway for Pres. Abbas of the PA to ask the UN to recognize a unilaterally declared Palestinian State in the pre-1967 borders. Such a move could have unforeseen consequences for the Palestinians, Israel and the UN.
First, it would represent an end of the road move by the Palestinians, foreclosing any further peace negotiations with Israel. Since Abbas has made an impossible precondition for further talks, a total freeze on all settlement activity, one that the current Netanyahu Government cannot and will not accept, this would be a desperate attmempt at an end-run around the impasse. It could also be designed to try to "persuade' both the US and Israel to give in to Abbas's demands. This move may have been triggered by his low popularity and the consequent cancellation of the January PA elections.
But, according to legal experts it could also be a potential failure for the PA, and might lead to its abolition. According to previous agreements, including the Oslo Accords that established the PA, neither Israel nor the PA are allowed to make unilateral moves that would materially affect the situation. If either does then the whole agreement is voided. Since Israel will not dismantle all of its settlements in the West Bank (as it did in Gaza) then the PA leadership thinks that there is no point in continuing to negotiate.
A unilateral move for statehood would undoubtedly garner significant support among Muslim members of the UN, where their strength has been evident for many years. But, the General Assembly cannot guarantee the legal recognition of Statehood, that in effect is up to each individual state, and while many states would undoubtedly recognize Palestine within the 67 borders, including East Jerusalem, it is likely that any such move would be rejected in the Security Council by a majority or a veto by the US and others.
The main test usually applied for the recognition of a State is whether or not it can defend itself and support itself. Palestine fails on both these grounds, Israel might decide to reoccupy parts of the West Bank and they could do little to stop it, and the Palestinians are an economic basket case, dependent largely on external aid.
Under these circumstances, such a move might, as FM Lieberman said today, lead to a war within the borders of Israel. It might trigger a move by Israeli Arabs in the Galilee and Negev to join such a State. However, this seems unlikely. Most likely is that the PA would collapse, there would be a power struggle within the Palestinian leadership. Hamas, which opposes such a truncated State anyway, and would prefer instead to destroy and replace Israel, would utilize the chaos to try to take over the West Bank. This in turn would lead to conflict with Israel. So any such unilateral move must be seen as a desperate failure by the Palestinians to deal realistically with their situation

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